Bronwen Maddox
Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered a friendlier tone to European nations, but the elephant in the room – the rupture between the US and its NATO allies – remains, says Bronwen Maddox.
Half the hall in Munich gave US Secretary of State Marco Rubio a standing ovation following his speech – out of relief at his declaration that ‘the fate of Europe will never be irrelevant to our own’. This at least was not another fight picked by the Trump administration with its NATO allies.
But there was immediate unease too, at the explicit limits Rubio placed on American support for Europe and Ukraine. And non-European countries were furious at what they saw as a tribute to white European civilization and a call to protect it from the rest of the world.
Rubio was followed by Wang Yi, Beijing’s top diplomat, who deployed stately phrases to describe China’s rivalry with the US, before erupting into a verbal fusillade against Japan, for its temerity to support Taiwan.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer freshened up his ‘friends with all sides’ diplomatic pitch; the US is still ‘an indispensable ally’. But he would now like more trade and defence deals with Europe too. The UK would deploy its carrier strike group to the Arctic soon ‘as part of our commitment to Euro-Atlantic security’, he promised his security-minded audience.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rounded off the morning, reminding his audience that the four-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of his country is fast approaching. He was more overtly appreciative of European contributions to his country’s war effort than at Davos three weeks ago, but just as urgent in calling on the US to send more missile defences and press Russia for concessions.
The elephant
That line-up on the second day of the Munich Security Conference captures the uneasy state of the world. Countries are trying to position themselves safely and profitably between two superpowers that are in rising economic conflict but not at war – at least, not yet.
But the conference focus, on the theme ‘Under Destruction’, has been the rift between the US and its former allies, captured in the title of one event I was moderating: ‘The West vs the West’.
Delegates were invited to address the ‘elephant in the room’; screens around the halls and corridors showed a lumbering elephant heading for the viewer (with a resemblance, intended or not, to the Republican Party symbol). And they were given Lego models of an elephant to assemble.
The Munich conference is the logical place to begin to discuss the Atlantic rift. It was here a year ago that US Vice President JD Vance shocked European leaders by stating the greatest threat to Europe was not from Russia, but ‘from within’.
The Rubio speech marked a deliberate contrast to Vance’s broadside at European cultural decline. But there was a clear warning that the Trump administration would go its own way in pursuit of US interests if it did not find Europe sympathetic. ‘It is our preference to do it together with you,’ said Rubio, but the US would not wait around to wrestle diplomatic agreement from reluctant allies.
The secretary of state offered scathing words for the United Nations which ‘has no answers and has played virtually no role’ in Gaza and Ukraine. There was a now-familiar attack on migration as an ‘urgent threat to the fabric of our societies and the survival of our culture’.
Most surprise – and controversy – flowed from his paean to European civilisation. Europe gave the world the rules of law, universities, science, Beethoven and the Beatles, he said. No, we had our own civilisation millennia ago, was the retort from other continents.
The UK prime minister has perfected his bid to be on good terms with all sides – at least for audiences outside the UK – even when the rival representatives for his petition are in the same room.
The pitch to the EU, however, represents a concerted attempt behind the scenes to improve the terms on which the UK deals with trade and if possible, another attempt to enter the arrangements on joint defence procurement.
This was then a more diplomatic gathering on the surface than last year, when the German defence minister shouted out loud in the hall ‘what are you saying?’ during the vice-president’s speech. But the tensions are clear and explicit. The elephant is not only in the centre of the hall but trumpeting loudly.
Source: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/02/west-vs-west-munich-security-conference
