Daniela Schwarzer
Friedrich Merz may be remembered as the chancellor who carried out the Zeitenwende (“historic turning point”) that his predecessor had promised, with Germany assuming geopolitical responsibilities commensurate with its economic and diplomatic capabilities. But first, his government will face several tests, both at home and abroad.
When German Chancellor Friedrich Merz assumed office on May 6, 2025, few anticipated how swiftly he would begin reshaping the country’s foreign policy. Yet the change in tone has been unmistakable. Germany’s long era of strategic hesitation is ending.
Central to this reorientation is a clear-eyed reassessment of Germany’s most essential alliance: the once-sacrosanct transatlantic relationship, which has been severely eroded. Merz, long a committed transatlanticist, now openly concedes that the United States can no longer be trusted as a credible guarantor of European security or reliable economic partner. In a striking public rebuke, he recently condemned top Trump administration officials’ interference in German politics for being as “drastic, dramatic, and shameful as that from Moscow.”
This shift is more than rhetorical. Since 1945, Western Europe (followed by much of Central and Eastern Europe after 1989) has rooted its identity and security in alignment with the US. But after 80 years, the Merz government is turning Germany’s focus inward, investing heavily in domestic defense and advocating for a more autonomous Europe. Ironically, this shift draws on a traditional American value: faith in the power of democracy and freedom. If Europe can reassert this principle independently, it could emerge as a decisive player in today’s evolving global order.
So far, the new German foreign-policy stance rests on three pillars: steadfast military support for Ukraine, which Merz views as strategically foundational, a more nuanced posture toward Israel, and a deliberate push for European sovereignty. The Merz government’s resolve has only strengthened in the face of Russia’s relentless aggression, President Vladimir Putin’s evident disinterest in ceasefires or negotiations, and inconsistency on the part of the Trump administration.
During Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Berlin on May 28, Germany announced a major €5 billion ($5.7 billion) aid package that includes €1 billion for air-defense systems as well as technical and financial assistance for the joint development of long-range weapons on Ukrainian soil. This commitment marks a notable departure from the more cautious approach taken by Merz’s predecessor, Olaf Scholz.
Looking ahead, Germany’s stance will be tested by European negotiations over stronger sanctions against Russia and, crucially, by the inevitable confrontation with China over its indirect support for Putin’s war effort.
Merz has also begun to recalibrate Germany’s approach toward Israel, which has traditionally been one of unwavering support. According to recent estimates, the war in Gaza – triggered by Hamas’s October 7, 2023, terrorist attack – has resulted in more than 53,000 Palestinian deaths, leading Merz and key members of his cabinet to re-evaluate Germany’s position. They have voiced concerns over the scale of Israel’s military response and the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza, and this rhetorical shift echoes what one hears from the German public. Younger generations, in particular, are less tethered to Holocaust-era guilt and have been shaped by a more diverse, pluralistic society that includes a substantial Muslim population.
To be sure, Germany and Israel remain mutually dependent. Following a ten-month suspension of German arms deliveries to Israel between November 2023 and August 2024, Germany resumed weapons transfers and remains committed to purchasing Israeli Arrow 3 air-defense systems and Heron drones – for use in supporting Ukraine. Yet the change in tone is significant, and it may well herald policy shifts. A looming test will be whether Germany supports initiatives for a two-state solution and a suspension of the EU-Israel Association Agreement. This agreement has provided Israel with privileged access to the European market since 2000, and its suspension is increasingly seen as a tool to push Netanyahu to respect international humanitarian law and eventually end the attacks in Gaza.
But the most far-reaching element of Merz’s early foreign policy is his emphasis on pursuing European strategic autonomy. Confronted with American retrenchment, Germany has embarked on its largest rearmament effort since 1945, allocating €400 billion to defense and security.
This massive increase in defense spending was made possible by a constitutional amendment to loosen the country’s “debt brake” (a cap on annual deficits). While the previous government broke new ground by stationing a full German brigade in Lithuania, Merz has already built on these initiatives and made them his own, thus solidifying Germany’s credibility as a reliable partner within NATO and beyond.
These moves may not constitute a revolution in German foreign policy, but they do represent a meaningful evolution. Long comfortable in its role as an economic powerhouse and diplomatic player, Germany is assuming geopolitical responsibilities commensurate with its capabilities.
Will Merz be remembered as the German leader who carried out the Zeitenwende (historic turning point) that Scholz declared after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022? Within EU institutions and in key member states such as France and Poland (as well as in the United Kingdom), Germany’s new assertiveness is already reshaping debates about defense, democracy, and sovereignty. In a world where power is being renegotiated and alliances are being tested, Germany is finally beginning to lead on its own terms.
*Daniela Schwarzer, a member of the Executive Board of the Bertelsmann Stiftung, is a former director of the German Council on Foreign Relations and former executive director for Europe and Central Asia at the Open Society Foundations. She is the author of Krisenzeit: Folgen Sicherheit, Wirtschaft, Zusammenhalt – Was Deutschland jetzt tun muss (Piper, 2023).
