Kemal Öztürk
If you look at the statements made by Israeli officials and media in recent weeks, as well as the attacks targeting inside Syria, it seems Israel appears to have targeted Türkiye. In Türkiye, strikes against potential base areas that could become part of defense cooperation agreements between Türkiye and Syria, are perceived as a directly hostile stance. In response, there is curiosity about how Türkiye will react to this aggression.
WHAT DOES ISRAEL WANT TO DO?
Since the Gaza war broke out, there is one truth that everyone has observed: Israel is acting not in “realpolitik” but in “theopolitik”. This means it is trying to realize the dream of a Greater Israel and put into action the Promised Land plans. In this regard, they have also secured agreements with factions in the U.S. that are sympathetic to them.
As a result of this theopolitical stance, it was anticipated that Israel would expand its territory by occupying lands of neighboring countries. It has occupied Gaza, the West Bank, and parts of Lebanon. Following the Syrian revolution, it increased its occupation of Syrian territory. And it won’t stop there. It has threatened Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia and is trying to get them to accept its project of expelling the Palestinians.
The main purpose of all these actions is to realize the thesis of “unstable regional countries”. Above all, Israel does not want any neighboring country to be strong, stable, or have a functioning economy.By constantly bombing Syria, it destroys its military infrastructure and does not allow it to rebuild. Israel sees Türkiye’s potential military bases in Syria, military aid, and efforts to train the Syrian army as a threat to itself.Now, Israel appears ready to do whatever it takes to block Türkiye’s military presence in Syria.
A RESPONSE TO ISRAEL THROUGH DIPLOMACY AND THE U.S.
Türkiye has perceived Israel’s aggressive actions and statements as hostile moves directed at itself. Ankara was expecting some signs of discontent from Israel, but perhaps not a strike on the T4 military base or such strong public declarations. However, I can say that there is considerable public and governmental anger in response.
Türkiye gave its first response through Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. In a statement to Reuters, Fidan said that Türkiye does not want to confront Israel in Syria:
“Israel’s attitude is not only a step toward destabilizing Syria but the entire region…”
During his meeting with US Secretary of State Rubio in the US, Hakan Fidan brought up Israel’s aggressive stance in Syria and openly stated that Türkiye is disturbed by the situation.
These diplomatic statements and initiatives can be interpreted as Türkiye’s efforts to de-escalate the tension. Türkiye believes that a conflict with Israel in a time when the new Syrian administration is still weak militarily, economically, and institutionally would only worsen Syria’s condition.
If Türkiye were to give a military response to Israel, the US would get involved and this could lead to a major war atmosphere. Türkiye is staying away from this for now. For now, Türkiye is trying to resolve the issue via the U.S. So far, Türkiye’s relationship with the Trump administration is going well. However, due to the economic crisis caused by the US’s move that shook the whole world, it is a bit unclear how this issue will be brought to the agenda and what action will be taken.
ISRAEL IS NOT ACTUALLY IN AN ADVANTAGEOUS POSITION
Israel can’t really do much without U.S. backing. Türkiye’s military power is vastly superior compared to Israel’s.
The cost of Israel’s occupation, conflict, war, and aggressive policies has reached enormous levels economically.
The Israeli economy has shrunk by 25% in the past year. The war is expected to cost Israel 400 billion dollars. The full extent of U.S. aid to Israel is unknown, as part of it is covert, but in 2024 alone, $20 billion worth of weapons were provided.
It is not possible for Israel to continue this expensive war in an environment where the world economy is in disarray. The US will have to stop Israel at some point.
On the other hand, Israel, with its small population and human and military power, has no way of fighting on four fronts at the same time, keeping its army disciplined, or gaining popular support. Although not always visible on the surface, there is significant internal conflict between the security bureaucracy and Netanyahu.
As the economy worsens and the people’s situation deteriorates, the ongoing protests will intensify, and Netanyahu will eventually lose power.
EUROPE TO DISTANCE ITSELF FROM ISRAEL
Europe, which is engaged in a major trade war with the US, stands closer to Türkiye than Israel on Syria policy and has made statements to that effect. Growing anti-U.S. sentiment will inevitably turn against Israel, which is already widely unpopular. The EU, feeling the effects of its economic crisis, is likely to counter Israel’s aggressive policies as a way of retaliating against the U.S. For example, France and Türkiye may cooperate in Syria. We may also see similar steps from Spain, Italy, and the UK.Due to both the economic crisis and the deteriorating relations, Europe will take steps against the policies of the US and Israel.
NETANYAHU DIDN’T GET WHAT HE WANTED FROM TRUMP
The Syrian issue is the top agenda item in the Middle East, in Israel and Türkiye, this is not the case in the USA.
The issue hasn’t yet made it to Trump’s agenda. To change this situation, Netanyahu visited the US previous day and brought the Syrian issue to Trump’s attention. He asked Trump for help in preventing Türkiye’s influence in Syria.
However, things didn’t go as he had hoped. Trump treated Netanyahu rather coldly and distantly. When Netanyahu asked for a statement supporting Israel’s security and position on Syria, he received responses he didn’t like at all.
“I have a great friend, his name is Erdoğan. I like him, and he likes me. We’ve never had a problem between us. We’ve experienced many things together. Netanyahu, if you have a problem with Türkiye, I believe I can resolve it. I hope there won’t be a problem. If there is any issue with Türkiye, I can resolve it. But you must be reasonable.”
Trump’s statements made Netanyahu very uncomfortable. The warning “You have to be reasonable” is an important emphasis. Because Israel and Netanyahu’s demands are endless and Trump is now bothered by this.
TÜRKİYE MAY CHANGE ITS RULES OF ENGAGEMENT
Economy, diplomacy and communication alone will undoubtedly not be enough to stop Israel’s aggression in Syria and its hostile attitude towards Türkiye. The rules of engagement set for Türkiye’s cross-border military presence are likely to change at this point.
For instance, when there is a terrorist attack on its military presence in Iraq, Türkiye responds militarily. So what happens in the face of a state attack? What if Israel attacks Turkish military bases or assets in Syria? What would NATO’s stance be in such a situation?
This situation necessitates the determination of new rules of engagement.
At the moment, Türkiye’s military, diplomatic, and political circles are actively discussing this matter. I don’t know what kind of decision will be made, but there is no mood in Türkiye to step back.
*https://www.aljazeera.net/opinions/2025/4/8/هل-تندلع-حرب-بين-إسرائيل-وتركيا