Adnan Boynukara
We are in a period, in that the dynamics of relationships within the global system are being redefined. It is important for our country to go through this process smoothly. In this context, Türkiye must redefine its relationships with both nearby and distant regions, as well as with countries aligned with its stance. Türkiye must put forward a new paradigm that will strengthen its role not only in bilateral relations but also in multilateral relations and global institutions and ensure that the world’s newly developing politics are more encompassing. Because current relations, capacity, resources, vision and willpower have gone beyond being a regional power. With a global perspective that surpasses regional limitations, it is possible to play a global role.
It may be too early to assess the new U.S. administration. However, after the election, the evaluations regarding the issues that have arisen since Trump took the office are taken into consideration, and the opinion that there is a very problematic management approach is strengthened. It is evident that an unrestrained, self-righteous, audacious, and arrogant style of leadership is being imposed. This approach is likely to shake both the traditional institutions and the customs of American democracy, as well as the fundamental pillars of the international order established after World War II.
This brazen style of governance, which will preoccupy the world for the next four years, presents an opportunity to update and diversify relationships and to be the voice of human conscience. It provides a chance to think about the future, analyze the potential evolution of international relations, clarify what kind of communication can be established with an administration that prefers to conduct bilateral relations through a language of threats, and redefine the level of engagement with a government that protects war criminals. On the other hand, this process will likely force certain countries heavily dependent on the U.S. to pay an economic price and may even put their sovereignty into question, creating significant opportunities for Türkiye.
Regional Partnerships
The most critical step to counter the current U.S. administration, which has a high potential to drag the world into chaos, is to revitalize regional collaborations and develop new partnerships. Regional relations refer to partnerships established among states within a particular geographic area in economic, political, security, and cultural domains. It is clear that Türkiye’s geographical position offers significant advantages for such collaborations. In an era where security risks threaten nations and economies fluctuate, cooperative solutions focused on regional peace and economic interests will become increasingly valuable. In particular, joint defense and security-based collaborations will open up more layered opportunities.
For Türkiye, six distinct regional cooperation axes can be identified. The first is cooperation that can be developed with the Middle East, Caucasus and Balkan countries through different regional dynamics. Although there are three main axes here, it is also clear that there are narrow and broad cooperation opportunities through these axes. Secondly, to develop a new positive agenda with the EU, which the US cannot hide its desire to dominate by creating security concerns. Here, there is the possibility of a relationship that will develop on the basis of bilateral gains. Third, to update and deepen existing relations with the UK, which has left the EU. Fourth, to evaluate new cooperation opportunities with China and Russia, which are considered to be in conflict with the United States. Fifth; to establish relations of equals and development-oriented partnerships in this period when Western relations with Africa are weakening. The sixth is a Mediterranean themed cooperation that has recently come to the agenda with energy resources. Here, it is necessary to mention the Turkish geography in Central Asia. However, since the mechanisms established for cooperation here continue, it is useful to look at this not as a new partnership, but as a partnership that needs to be developed.
Key Dynamics of Cooperations
In order for regional cooperation to function properly, it is necessary to pay attention to some basic dynamics. The most fundamental dynamic that needs to be focused on, is the issue of common interests. Because the fundamental problem of the age we live in is the economy. If it is shown to the parties that the common interest is the economy, relations will develop as quickly as possible and will be sustainable. Common investments, the free movement of businesspeople, and joint policies supporting investments can accelerate this process. Additionally, trade volume, investment flows, and regional economic integration mechanisms (such as free trade agreements) can further incentivize cooperation.
Another key dynamic to consider is security concerns. Security concerns arising from different reasons make cooperation necessary. Regional security risks, terrorism, transnational crimes, and irregular migration are issues that no country can effectively handle alone. Therefore, relationships based on joint security mechanisms can evolve in different directions, expanding the scope of cooperation. Such threats can both strengthen cooperation and open up new opportunities through factors such as geographical proximity, similar cultures and shared historical experiences.
Alongside these dynamics, another crucial factor is institutionalization. Because institutionalization, a functioning system and an operation with defined rules positively affect sustainability. Of course, the dynamics mentioned here are general categories that influence the direction and success of cooperation. The key is to conduct sound analyses of possible partner countries and establish collaboration frameworks based on those findings. These dynamics should be regarded as fundamental elements shaping the direction and effectiveness of partnerships.
When evaluating the six regions that present cooperation opportunities for Türkiye, it is essential to focus on their key characteristics. For example; despite its strong institutional structure, the EU needs new and genuine collaborations and ‘grafts’ due to issues such as market problems, weakness in security reflexes, genuine leadership issues and inability to carry the universal values that humanity has accumulated. The Middle East requires a common security perspective, management of extremism, and a genuine political process. The Caucasus primarily needs regional peace and shared development. The basis for cooperation in the Mediterranean basin is both security and fair use of resources. Africa prioritizes stable state structures, security, peace, and local development. Thus, a well-grounded risk analysis is necessary to establish healthy cooperation tailored to each region.
Türkiye’s Situation
In my recently published article titled “The Dynamics of International Relations and Türkiye,” I have already assessed the four fundamental factors that determine a state’s ability to develop and sustain a sound foreign policy: resources, capacity, vision, and willpower. It is clear that the existing concentration regarding to these elements is an advantage for a smooth foreign policy. It is certain that it will facilitate regional cooperation processes that can offer a way out, especially in a period when global ‘power’ in the world has become so impudent. If such cooperation opportunities that are available to the country are not taken advantage of, our risk of being affected by the global crisis that is likely to deepen, may increase. If Türkiye evaluates its existing capacity, resources, vision, and willpower alongside its demographic and geopolitical advantages, it can achieve a significant breakthrough in the Caucasus, the Balkans, and even Europe. In the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa, it has the potential to become a leading actor.
In this equation, what Türkiye needs to do is to prioritize establishing a new order in its region, focusing on the rule of law, democratic functioning, peace, stability, and economic development. Additionally, in response to the U.S. efforts to pressure EU countries through NATO, Türkiye should create a new positive agenda based on shared economic interests and mutual defense relations. In this context, Türkiye’s geopolitical position, which provides geographical depth, is highly likely to yield positive outcomes. In fact, the first sign of this came from the EU. Under pressure from Trump, the EU, which had sought greater independence in its defense policies, initiated a new institutional reorganization. The commission, which had previously assigned Türkiye’s dossier to the unit that handling Middle Eastern and North African countries, backtracked and reassigned it to the unit that responsible for candidate countries. Though it may seem like a minor adjustment, this is a significant change.
The establishment of well-functioning new regional cooperations will also mean the end of the effectiveness of proxy organizations that have surrounded and even “captured” our region. From a Türkiye-centric perspective, it can be argued that such proxy groups are the primary problem in the Middle East and Africa. Since the end of the Cold War, the use of non-state actors—such as paramilitary groups, terrorist organizations, and private military companies—in inter-state conflicts has increased. The kind of broad and new partnerships I am discussing here would render these organizations meaningless and ultimately lead to their dissolution in a short period. This potential outcome is far more valuable than any economic gain.
We are in a period, in that the dynamics of relationships within the global system are being redefined. It is important for our country to go through this process smoothly. In this context, Türkiye must redefine its relationships with both nearby and distant regions, as well as with countries aligned with its stance. Türkiye must put forward a new paradigm that will strengthen its role not only in bilateral relations but also in multilateral relations and global institutions and ensure that the world’s newly developing politics are more encompassing. Because current relations, capacity, resources, vision and willpower have gone beyond being a regional power. With a global perspective that surpasses regional limitations, it is possible to play a global role. This is not arrogance, but being the voice of global conscience with similar countries.
To fully seize this opportunity, as President Erdoğan and MHP leader Bahçeli have frequently emphasized since the fall, “strengthening the domestic front” is of great importance. Our recent history has shown that temporary concentrations of power and the suppression of problems through sheer force result not only in significant costs but also in a short-lived appearance of stability. The way to permanently ensure our internal peace is to find permanent and sustainable solutions to internal problems, to ensure social peace within this framework, to implement the democratic transformation of the state, to ensure the rule of law, and to strengthen society-state relations on the basis of democracy and welfare.
In summary, if Türkiye ensures the disarmament of the PKK, pursues a multidimensional foreign policy, implements the vision of symphonic alliances, demonstrates the willpower to overcome historical hostilities, follows policies aligned with new balance mechanisms, realizes strategic diversification, and becomes the driving force of global conscience, it will elevate itself to an entirely different level.