Ömer Gündoğdu
It is now clear that the unipolar era has come to an end. The United States is acting with the aggression of a nation far smaller than itself. Its responses appear irrational. We can expect the geopolitical divide based on democracy versus autocracy to weaken even further. Likewise, a partial reversal in the global trend toward democratization may also be observed. However, the competition between the United States and its rivals for control over global mineral resources, military bases, and trade routes will persist at the same pace. What we are heading toward is an era in which it will be increasingly difficult to define the framework of these rivalries—an era where nothing but raw power serves as a limiting force.
Trump has not yet completed his first 100 days in office, yet it can already be said that he has wreaked havoc. In every sense, he has chosen to wage war against all the concepts and institutions that have become conventional in recent years. He is stripping all liberal values and labels of their meaning—both domestically and internationally. At home, he is actively targeting LGBT ideology and leftist movements in their entirety. Normatively, while acting in complete opposition to all liberal discourses, he has launched an all-out assault on the institutions of the existing order. He is shutting down the Department of Education, withdrawing from all programs labeled under “equality,” and cutting their funding. He is dismantling all climate-related institutions and cutting off their funding. He is closing all funds and programs that support LGBT rights, gender approaches, and minority communities. He intends to completely stop all public spending on minorities, including in areas such as education and healthcare.
Abroad, he is dismantling the geopolitical framework that rested on the foundations of the liberal world order. Until just a few years ago, the United States was shaping its discourse around a “democracy bloc” that included Europe, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Ukraine, and Australia, while also working to strengthen geopolitical alliances such as NATO and QUAD. It placed emphasis on multilateral agreements with its allies in Asia and focused on reinforcing the bloc against Iran in the Middle East through the Abraham Accords. To counter the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea axis, it was attempting to establish a strategic line through “connector” countries like Vietnam, India, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Hungary. This plan, in fact, seemed to be working—at least to some extent—until last year.
But Trump has shattered this entire foundation. Putin is now seen as a friend, while Zelensky is labeled a dictator. Europe has turned into the enemy. We are faced with an administration that seizes every opportunity to hollow out NATO. In Asia, a new ground is being laid where war scenarios centered on Taiwan have become futile. As expected, America’s allies are in shock. Every institution of the liberal international order, which was already barely standing in the face of the genocide against the Palestinians, is now falling apart entirely. Climate agreements have lost all meaning. The International Court of Justice is no more. Even the United Nations has reached the point where its relevance is nearly obsolete.
Despite all of this, it is worth taking a long-term perspective. Washington, DC is a city of “survivors.” The institutions that have endured here for 70–80 years have withstood far more dire periods in American domestic politics. This is a city where U.S. presidents have been assassinated, where civil society leaders were killed. Both JFK and Martin Luther King Jr. were murdered in assassinations. Those who lived through the civil rights movements of the 1960s and 70s say they have witnessed even worse political crises. Therefore, we can say that Washington will, in one way or another, survive and manage to weather this murky atmosphere with minimal damage. That is to say, the institutions will begin to shift their rhetoric, go along with the Trump administration, and try to save the day by making concessions. In the short term, left-liberal discourse may face certain difficulties, but in the long run, it will return to its track.
Externally, we should expect an even more chaotic period ahead. It is now evident that the unipolar era is over. The United States is behaving aggressively, almost like a country far smaller than itself. Its responses are irrational. We can anticipate that the geopolitical divide based on democracy and autocracy will continue to weaken. A partial reversal in the trend of democratization may also be observed. However, the race between the U.S. and its rivals to dominate global mineral resources, military bases, and trade routes will proceed at the same pace. We are entering a period in which defining these rivalries will become nearly impossible—and where nothing but power itself will serve as a constraint.