Necmettin Acar
On February 14, 1945, aboard the USS Quincy in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud and then-US President Franklin D. Roosevelt reached an implicit agreement that would go down in history as the “security-for-oil” pact. Now, on the 80th anniversary of this tacit pact, another US president will be hosted in Riyadh. Moreover, just as in his first term, this visit will mark Trump’s first official trip abroad. Under the Roosevelt-Ibn Saud Pact, the United States secured free access to the region’s oil resources in exchange for guaranteeing the security and territorial integrity of the Saudi regime. While this agreement remained stable between the two parties until the early 2000s, it has recently encountered various challenges.
The purpose of this paper is to assess the Roosevelt-Ibn Saud Pact as it enters its eightieth year and to offer a perspective on the future of relations between the two actors. The central argument of the paper is that the prevailing climate of mistrust between the two countries will continue to deepen. The root cause of this distrust lies in the United States’ unilateral policies, which have disregarded the security concerns of Saudi Arabia and other regional states, while simultaneously attempting to withdraw from the de facto security guarantees it had previously provided. The insecurity triggered by this US stance has pushed regional countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, to seek greater autonomy in their foreign policies.
The Roosevelt-Ibn Saud Pact and the Birth of the US-Saudi Strategic Partnership
During the interwar period, Saudi Arabia was under British protection. However, following World War II, as Britain weakened and lost its role as the dominant actor in the region’s security architecture, Saudi Arabia sought a new alliance. At the same time, the United States, which was emerging as a global power and sought to establish hegemony through its relations with the Middle East, displayed a growing interest in the region. These developments formed the key dynamics that brought Saudi Arabia and the US onto common ground. The meeting between Roosevelt and Ibn Saud aboard the USS Quincy in the Red Sea on February 14, 1945, resulted in the establishment of a tacit pact based on the principle of “security for oil.”
Five key factors encouraged the Saudis to turn toward the United States in the post-war period.
First, Britain, which had been significantly weakened during the war, gradually withdrew from the region, creating serious power and security vacuums. The Saudis were deeply concerned about the uncertainty and potential risks to their national security that this vacuum entailed.
Second, in the aftermath of the war, Russia’s revisionist ambitions in the Middle East generated a profound sense of insecurity in Riyadh.
Third, the rivalry between the Saudi dynasty and the Hashemite monarchies in Jordan and Iraq—both established under British patronage—led the Saudis to seek international support.
Fourth, Saudi Arabia’s pursuit of domestic political stability was a key motivation for fostering relations with the United States. The influx of new revenue from the oil industry could provide the government with a strong economic foundation, playing a critical role in ensuring internal political stability.
Finally, the Saudis aimed to strengthen their dominance over the smaller Gulf sheikhdoms—such as Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates—which were under British protection at the time, through an alliance with the United States.
From the US perspective, there were also significant strategic reasons for forging an alliance with the Saudis.
First, Roosevelt sought to prevent Russia from filling the power and security vacuum left by Britain’s withdrawal from the region in the post-war era. A strong Russian presence in the Middle East was perceived as the greatest threat to US global hegemony.
Second, the United States had long aimed to assert dominance over global oil markets. In the post-war period, more than half of Iraq’s oil and three-quarters of Iran’s oil were under British control. While Saudi Arabia possessed vast oil reserves, it had yet to develop a fully mature oil industry. By aligning with Saudi Arabia, the US sought to wrest market leadership from Britain.
Finally, the operation of the Bretton Woods system, known as the Gold Standard, was closely tied to dominance in global oil markets. Ensuring that oil was traded in US dollars played a crucial role in establishing the dollar as both a reserve currency and an international medium of exchange. This, in turn, was a major step in solidifying US global financial power.
The Tests Faced by the Roosevelt-Ibn Saud Pact
Following the initial engagement in 1945, US-Saudi relations gradually evolved into a strong alliance. In exchange for unrestricted access to Saudi Arabia’s vast oil reserves, the United States became the kingdom’s primary guarantor of regime security and territorial integrity. For over half a century, these de facto security guarantees remained unchallenged, shielding Saudi Arabia from both internal and external threats.
The first major threat to Riyadh emerged in 1962 with the overthrow of the monarchy in Yemen and the establishment of a socialist republic. As part of his policy of exporting revolution, Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser intervened in the Yemeni civil war, deploying approximately 70,000 Egyptian troops and launching airstrikes on Saudi settlements. This significantly heightened Riyadh’s sense of insecurity. During this period, the United States provided Saudi Arabia with security guarantees, military aid, and arms supplies, while also deploying fighter jets in Dhahran and Asir to counter the threat from Yemen.
The second major threat to Riyadh was the Iranian Islamic Revolution and Ayatollah Khomeini’s policy of exporting revolution. During the Shah’s reign, Iran possessed the world’s fifth most powerful military, equipped with modern weaponry. After the revolution, these advanced arms fell under Khomeini’s control. His ideological and political influence over the region’s Shiite populations, combined with his ability to incite them against ruling regimes, led to a series of uprisings. The most dangerous of these occurred in Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich Eastern Province. With active US support, the Riyadh government successfully suppressed this revolutionary wave.
Coinciding with the Iranian Revolution, the Juhayman al-Otaybi incident posed another serious test for the US-Saudi alliance. On November 20, 1979, Juhayman al-Otaybi, a commander in the Saudi National Guard, led a group of armed militants in storming the Grand Mosque in Mecca, seizing control of the holy site. Al-Otaybi denounced the Saudi regime’s corruption and called for the monarchy’s overthrow. As the uprising threatened to spread across the Hejaz region and gained significant support within Saudi society, it became a grave concern for Riyadh. With strong backing from the United States, the rebellion was ultimately crushed, ensuring the stability of the Saudi regime.
From the early 1980s onward, the growing threat from Iraq became another major test for US-Saudi relations. In 1979, Egypt signed the Camp David Accords, leading to its isolation in the Arab world, while the same year saw the overthrow of the Shah in Iran. The weakening of these two key regional actors created a power vacuum, which Saddam Hussein sought to fill with his ambitions for regional leadership. His attack on Iran, aimed at seizing the oil-rich Khuzestan province, triggered the Iran-Iraq War, which would last for eight years.
In 1990, Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait fueled speculation that Saudi territory might be Saddam’s next target, deepening Riyadh’s sense of insecurity. However, thanks to active US intervention and the neutralization of Saddam’s regime, Saudi Arabia’s regime security and territorial integrity were preserved.
In conclusion, the Roosevelt-Ibn Saud Pact, established in 1945 under the principle of “security for oil,” remained strong for over half a century. Throughout this period, the United States ensured the security and territorial integrity of Saudi Arabia in exchange for unrestricted access to the kingdom’s oil industry.
The Future of US-Saudi Relations
While the Roosevelt-Ibn Saud Pact remained in effect until the early 2000s, its relevance began to be questioned in the 2010s. During the Arab Spring, the United States supported the ousting of pro-Saudi status quo regimes, including those in Egypt under Mubarak, as well as in Tunisia, Yemen, and Bahrain. This stance raised concerns in Saudi Arabia that, in time, the Saudi king himself might face a similar fate.
In response, Riyadh took steps to reduce its dependence on the United States in defense and security matters while diversifying its security policies. Closer cooperation with global powers such as Russia and China, efforts to build a domestic defense industry, and the Vision 2030 initiative—aimed at ending economic reliance on oil—serve as concrete indicators of Saudi Arabia’s pursuit of greater autonomy in foreign policy.
Three key factors have challenged the Roosevelt-Ibn Saud Pact, which had remained stable for over half a century.
First, fundamental shifts in global energy markets not only ended US dependence on Middle Eastern oil but also transformed the US into a major oil exporter. The shale gas revolution enabled the United States to become a leading energy producer, reducing its strategic interest in the region.
Second, the US pivot to the Asia-Pacific region to counter the rising threat of China contributed to the weakening of US-Saudi relations.
Finally, increasing engagement by global actors such as Russia and China in the Middle East provided Riyadh with alternative options. Since the early 2010s, intensifying global competition over economic corridors has further enhanced the geopolitical significance of the region, offering Saudi Arabia new avenues for maneuvering in its foreign policy.
Beyond all these factors, the greatest threat to the Roosevelt-Ibn Saud Pact is undoubtedly the Trump factor. Trump’s approach to foreign policy, characterized by what can be described as “shallow pragmatism,” has caused significant anxiety among actors who have long relied on de facto US security guarantees, particularly Saudi Arabia. His disregard for European security during the Russia-Ukraine war, his policies that threatened traditional US allies such as Jordan and Egypt in favor of Israel’s security, and the deep mistrust he created within the Atlantic alliance—especially through his stance at the Munich Security Conference—are among the key concerns for Riyadh.
In recent years, intensive negotiations have been conducted between Saudi Arabia and the United States to establish a comprehensive security pact. During Trump’s first term, there were strong indications that significant steps were being taken in this regard. Trump made Riyadh his first international destination and signed a $110 billion defense deal with Saudi Arabia, pursuing a policy aimed at enhancing the kingdom’s military capacity. During this visit, Trump also effectively set the stage for the blockade imposed on Qatar, which had been pursuing an independent foreign policy contrary to Saudi interests.
However, the 2019 attacks on Saudi ARAMCO facilities raised serious doubts about the validity of the United States’ de facto security guarantees. In the aftermath of these attacks, Riyadh lost confidence in US security support and began seeking new alliances. One of the most significant steps in this new foreign policy strategy was the normalization agreement with Iran, brokered by China in Beijing. Additionally, the Saudis abandoned the blockade against Qatar, despite none of their demands being met. During the same period, steps were also taken to normalize relations with Türkiye.
Trump’s approach to US-Saudi relations during his second term, which continued to be based on “shallow pragmatism” rather than a strategic alliance, indicates that tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United States will persist as a long-term issue. This approach further eroded Saudi trust in the United States and pushed Riyadh toward pursuing a more independent and diversified foreign policy by engaging with alternative global actors.
The Roosevelt-Ibn Saud Pact, established in 1945, remained stable for nearly half a century under the principle of “security for oil.” However, shifting global dynamics in the early 21st century weakened this alliance. The US shale gas revolution granted the United States energy independence, eliminating its reliance on Middle Eastern oil—a key pillar of the relationship. At the same time, the US pivot toward the Asia-Pacific region and its focus on countering China led Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to pursue a more autonomous foreign policy. The growing involvement of Russia and China in the Gulf provided Saudi Arabia with alternative security and economic cooperation opportunities. Additionally, China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the increasing competition over global economic corridors enhanced Saudi Arabia’s geopolitical significance, creating new strategic opportunities for Riyadh and expanding its foreign policy maneuverability.
During the Trump era, Saudi Arabia’s trust in the United States was severely shaken due to Trump’s “shallow pragmatism” in foreign policy. The US’s ambiguous stance on the Russia-Ukraine war and its inconsistent approach at the Munich Security Conference further raised concerns in Riyadh about the sustainability of the strategic alliance.
In light of these developments, it is evident that the Roosevelt-Ibn Saud Pact can no longer be maintained in its current form. Furthermore, the prospect of establishing a comprehensive security alliance between the United States and Saudi Arabia to replace the Roosevelt-Ibn Saud Pact appears highly unlikely.