Syria is perhaps one of the countries in the region with the most distressing history. They lived under the brutal oppression of the tyrannical Assad family for 61 years. Then, they endured horrific suffering in a civil war that lasted 13 years. More than a million people died, 12 million were displaced from their lands, and their cities were reduced to rubble.

Finally, the children of the Syrian people overthrew the tyrant Assad and came to power, but their troubles still do not end. Now, Israel’s de facto occupation and the United States’ occupation of a region in northern Syria through the PYD continue. The terrorist acts fueled by these two states have recently been among the key challenges facing the Damascus administration.

It seems that being a neighbor to Israel and not being its ally condemns countries to such a fate. Lebanon, Gaza, and Egypt’s endless troubles are partly due to their shared borders with Israel.

Naturally, the biggest challenge facing Syria’s new government is Israel’s expansionist and aggressive stance. However, there are other issues as well. Let’s take a closer look at them one by one.

1. Israeli Occupation and Destabilization Policies

If you are a neighbor of Israel and do not comply with everything it demands, may God help you. You should expect every possible act of hostility. In fact, signing agreements, maintaining good relations, and complying with its demands will not necessarily save you either. Egypt and Jordan, which almost never caused trouble for Israel and even made covert agreements, are now being threatened with the forced relocation of 2 million Palestinians into their territories. The Middle East has an “Israel problem,” and this issue directly affects its neighbors the most. History is filled with painful examples of this reality. That is why Israel is the greatest threat to the Syrian revolution.

As soon as the revolution took place, it bombed Syria’s entire military infrastructure, occupied its most strategic lands, and continues to do so. In addition to its de facto occupation, in the past month, it has implemented a policy of destabilizing Syria. Israel is behind the clashes between the Druze and then the Nusayris with the Damascus administration in Latakia and other coastal areas. It failed to manipulate the Druze as it wanted, but it incited the Alawites by mobilizing the remaining mercenaries from Assad’s murderous army to carry out terrorist attacks. The success of these actions and the toppling of the Damascus administration is impossible and Israel already knows this. Its goal is to create instability and hinder Syria’s development.

The Damascus administration must take measures to counter Israel’s destabilization policies. To do so, it must seriously address the issue of minorities, which is the most vulnerable and exploitable area.

2. The Fragile Fault Line of Minorities

As we have seen in the past month, the most fragile fault line in Syria that Israel, the U.S., and Iran can exploit is minorities. Syria, with its highly cosmopolitan social structure, is home to dozens of ethnic and religious groups. While Chaldeans, Yazidis, and Turkmens may not be minorities that other countries can manipulate, the major minority groups require careful attention. The Kurds, Druze, and Alawites are particularly vulnerable and can fall under the influence of foreign powers.

In northern Syria, the U.S. and Israel use the PYD to control vast territories. This region contains the country’s oil fields, fertile agricultural lands, and water resources. Despite repeated demands, the PKK/PYD has refused to disarm and integrate into the new government, even ignoring orders from its founding leader, Abdullah Öcalan, to lay down arms. This is because the group takes its orders from Israel and the U.S. Although the PYD does not represent the entire Kurdish population, it possesses a strong armed force, making it a serious threat to the Syrian administration.

To prevent this, it is unlikely that the Damascus government will enter into a conflict with the PYD, because if it does, Israel will accelerate the invasion from the south.

Instead, it should do three things:

First, steps should be taken to accelerate the Kurdish minority’s cultural rights, their ability to participate in political governance, and their integration with Damascus. That is why work on the constitution should accelerated.

Secondly, the Damascus government, which has strengthened its relations with the Kurdish population in the country, should isolate the PYD and use its geographical advantage to cut off its logistics routes. The roads in the North, South and West are already closed. Only the Iraqi border is open for the PYD. Syria should also reach an agreement with the Iraqi government to cut off the PYD’s logistics and force them to compromise with the Damascus administration.

The third thing they will do is, in case Türkiye intervenes against the PYD, they should not be a party to the conflict but they should also help Türkiye. Türkiye sees the PYD as a primary threat to itself and is willing to take military action if it does not lay down its arms.

Another important minority in Syria is the Druze. Although they recently demonstrated that they would not fall for Israeli provocations and would not engage in conflict with Damascus, they remain a fragile fault line for the Syrian government. Syria’s new constitution should include provisions to strengthen their ties with the state. The Druze must see the Damascus administration as their own government. The government is aware of their demands, and addressing these concerns would not undermine Syria’s unitary structure.

The Unhealed Wound: Sectarian Conflict

Perhaps the deadliest legacy of the Assad family to Syria is sectarian division. The greatest harm inflicted by the Alawite Assad family during their 61-year rule was attempting to govern the 90% majority with a 10% minority dictatorship. When civil war broke out as a result, Iran and Hezbollah entered the country and turned the conflict into a full-scale sectarian war. We have all witnessed its painful and shameful consequences. Not only Syria but also the surrounding countries suffered the destruction caused by this disgraceful war.

The bloodstained soldiers who were fiercely loyal to Assad went underground after the revolution but have now resurfaced, encouraged by Iran and Israel, to spread terror. In recent events, more than 700 people lost their lives. Even though the incidents were suppressed before they could spread, the danger continues because not all of these murderous Assad soldiers have been captured.

The Damascus administration must take measures to remove the Alawite card from Israel and Iran’s hands. So far, it has followed a good strategy by refraining from revenge and ensuring the safety of the Alawite minority. However, this is not enough. It must not repeat Assad’s mistakes by establishing a system solely dominated by Sunnis. It should improve the economic conditions of this struggling minority and include Alawites who have not been involved in crimes or fanaticism in the government. Their rights must be constitutionally guaranteed, leaving no gaps for foreign provocation.

The Risks Posed by Extremist Groups

Another danger that awaits the new Syrian administration is the groups that are ideologically and religiously extreme, and they must be restrained in some way. During the suppression of terrorist activities in Latakia and its surroundings, some of these armed extremists harmed civilians and engaged in looting. The Damascus administration has launched an investigation to identify and apprehend those responsible, establishing a fully authorized commission. However, this incident demonstrates that many armed groups within Syria have drifted to dangerous extremes during the civil war, waiting for an opportunity to take revenge for the oppression they suffered. The Damascus government must acknowledge this threat. Although foreigners, especially those coming from other countries, have been purged, recent events have shown us that they are still a potential threat.

The Constitution Must Be Finalized Quickly, and Elections Should Be Held Sooner

Eliminating all these threats is no easy task for a newly established government of a war-torn country with a devastated economy, destroyed infrastructure, and military power wiped out by Israel. However, the Damascus administration is lucky to have Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and Türkiye on its side at the same time and to have the full support of the Arab League and most of the Islamic countries. Utilizing this advantage will make recovery more easier.

Holding elections in a country where 12 million people have been displaced is impossible. However, prolonging this process for four years also poses risks. The first step toward holding elections sooner is enacting a new constitution. A commission is currently working on this. There is no set time, but it would be beneficial if they accelerated. The most important way to prevent minority fault lines from breaking is through constitutional regulations. That is why this work should accelerate.

It is not possible for migrants abroad to return to the country immediately. The elections depend on this. However, it may be possible to allow them to vote from abroad. Conditions for this can be arranged, especially in Türkiye and Jordan, where the largest refugee populations reside. This would enable elections to be held sooner.

Syria faces difficult days ahead for its painful history to come to an end. However, regional countries must not forget that Syria’s instability also poses a great danger to their own nations. Therefore, they should provide more aid to Syria.

The recent meeting in Amman was a good example of this.

The Amman Meeting: A Good Start

The agreement between Türkiye, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon to combat ISIS is a highly significant development. For the first time, Muslim countries have formed a joint structure to fight ISIS among themselves. A central operations base will be established in Syria, and the Damascus administration will be granted full authority over it. This means that the fight against ISIS will be managed among regional countries without reliance on Western nations.

The establishment of this structure is an extremely important initiative in terms of showing that other structures can be established. It is a good step for Syria to stand on its own two feet and to get rid of the influence of Western states.

I hope it will continue from now on.