Mehmet Rakipoğlu
Manipulation of Minorities and the Induction of Chaos
Since December 8, 2024, a new Syria has been in the making. However, the impact of the revolution and its success story is not limited to Syria itself. In fact, it can be said that a Damascus-centered Levantine order is emerging. In this context, the new Syrian administration, which has secured its territorial integrity and sovereignty, could serve as a model for regional transformation.
Indeed, under the new Syrian order, significant progress has been made in preserving territorial integrity, particularly due to the unifying steps taken by the administration led by Syrian President Ahmed Shara. Amidst traditional divisions and ethnic conflicts, the reestablishment of state authority has facilitated the integration of various ethnic and sectarian groups—especially Kurds and Druze—into the state structure.
However, external actors in the region, particularly Israel and Iran, have been intervening to fragment Syria and create chaos in line with their strategic interests. In this regard, despite portraying themselves as ideological adversaries, Israel and Iran appear to be acting in parallel directions within Syria. Both actors have seized the transitional period in Syria as an opportunity to manipulate the existing situation. Through their strategies and interventions, particularly by leveraging minority groups (Israel with the Druze and Iran with the Alawites), they have sought to destabilize Syria.
Territorial Integrity and Integration
The new Syria under Ahmed Shara’s leadership has entered a reconstruction phase after years of internal turmoil and weakened state authority. In this transformation process, securing national borders and strengthening central authority have been primary objectives. Although it does not directly represent the Kurds, the integration of both the YPG/SDF and ethnic minorities, such as the Druze, into the state structure—formalized through agreements signed in March 2025—has played a key role in reshaping Syria’s socio-political landscape.
This integration process serves as a tangible indicator of efforts to resolve conflicts across the country and establish an inclusive state. The government’s unifying policies offer hope for restoring central authority while avoiding fragmentation. The success of the new Syrian administration in maintaining territorial integrity reflects both local public support and its capacity to resist external interventions. However, these developments remain vulnerable to external interferences and regional power struggles.
Israel’s Druze Card
Israel has been conducting operations to weaken the new order in Syria, citing security concerns and strategic interests in the region. Especially after the fall of the Assad regime, Israel’s military operations and occupation attempts have posed a major threat to Syria’s territorial integrity. Israel’s denial of the 1974 ceasefire agreement with Syria and its efforts to expand its military presence in and around the Golan Heights serve as clear examples of foreign intervention.
Israel frames its attacks on Syria as necessary for security and defense, yet simultaneously seeks to create chaos by exacerbating ethnic and sectarian divisions within the country. Specifically, the difficulties and tensions experienced by communities such as the Druze during their integration into the new Syrian administration are being exploited by Israel as a “tool of separatism.” Although Israel appears to be defending these groups, its true objective is to destabilize the new order and ensure a state of permanent chaos in Syria. By doing so, the weakening of central authority and the continuation of Syria’s fragmented structure would serve Israel’s claims to regional hegemony.
This strategy is not limited to military interventions but also extends into the political and diplomatic arena. Israel’s lobbying efforts with the U.S. administration, the continuation of sanctions on Syria, and the maintenance of economic isolation all illustrate the multifaceted nature of foreign intervention.
Iran’s Nusayri Discourse
In response to the new order in Syria, Iran has adopted policies of provocation and regional destabilization through minority groups, mirroring Israel’s strategies. Especially in rural areas like Latakia, Iran-backed militias’ activities among the Nusayris (Arab Alawites) reflect Iran’s efforts to strengthen its regional influence. In this context, Iran’s mobilization of local elements to launch armed uprisings against the new government stands out as a key tactic aimed at destabilizing Syria’s internal stability. Despite receiving amnesty certificates from the reconciliation centers of the new Syrian administration, many of these “civilian Nusayris” took up arms against the legitimate government, sparking incidents that led to significant civilian casualties.
The attacks carried out by Iran-backed militias against civilians are not merely military interventions but also inflict deep wounds on social memory, fueling ethnic and sectarian tensions. Such actions complicate the process of restoring state authority and weaken Syria’s social fabric. Iran’s pursuit of a strategy similar to Israel’s can be interpreted as an attempt by both countries to manipulate Syria’s order according to their own interests through foreign interventions.
The incitement policies pursued by both external actors through minority groups in Syria reveal a common strategy aimed at weakening Syria’s current political transformation process. The external interventions that undermine Syria’s democratization and reconstruction efforts could have serious long-term consequences, threatening regional stability.
Regional Power Struggle and Minority Manipulation
Israel and Iran’s interventionist policies in Syria not only shape the country’s internal dynamics but also mirror the broader regional power struggle. Both actors aim to safeguard their geostrategic interests, treating Syria as a geopolitical vacuum. This situation hinders Syria’s efforts to restore state authority and frames external interventions as barriers to democratization.
At the core of minority manipulation lies the desire of external actors to reshape Syria’s ongoing political transformation according to their own interests. While Israel targets Syria’s reintegration process through military operations and political lobbying, Iran similarly prefers to incite conflict through minority groups. Such interventions hinder the strengthening of central authority in Syria and support efforts to create a fragmented structure by fueling local resistance.
Syria plays a vital role in reshaping regional power balances. Throughout history, it has been one of the cornerstones of political stability in the region. However, external interventions disrupting this stability will not only have negative consequences for Syria but will also undermine the security and political framework of the entire Middle East. This is a development that the international community must closely monitor.
Conclusion
The new Syria under Ahmed Shara’s leadership has taken significant steps toward restoring territorial integrity and central authority, successfully integrating diverse social groups such as the Druze and Kurds. However, the provocative policies of external actors—particularly Israel and Iran—pose major challenges to the country’s democratization and reconstruction process. While Israel exploits the existing chaos to use the Druze as a pretext for undermining the new administration, Iran implements similar strategies through the Nusayri communities in rural areas.
The strategic manipulation pursued by both countries in Syria undermines efforts to rebuild the state, weakens local resistance, and disrupts social cohesion. This situation necessitates Syria’s resilience not only in the military sphere but also in political and social domains against foreign interventions. To achieve political stability, strengthening state authority, establishing democratic mechanisms, and increasing the participation of ethnic and sectarian groups should be among the top priorities.
Syria’s future hinges not only on the strength of its current leadership but also on its ability to counteract external interventions—especially those that thrive on chaos. In this context, the international community’s constructive contributions to Syria’s reconstruction process play a crucial role in minimizing the negative effects of foreign interventions. Within this framework, reinforcing central authority and enhancing social solidarity stand out as the most effective defense mechanisms against external interference. In academic literature, the successful completion of the democratization process while preserving the state’s territorial integrity is considered essential not only at the national level but also for ensuring regional and global peace.
In conclusion, the new Syria under Ahmed Shara’s leadership demonstrates the potential to establish stability despite external interventions, with its determined steps to preserve territorial and national unity. However, for this process to succeed, coordinated policies must be developed at both local and international levels to counteract the interventions of external actors that thrive on chaos. The effects of Israel and Iran’s efforts to protect their strategic interests in the region— which weaken Syria’s social and political structure—can only be neutralized through decisive and inclusive state policies.