The Strange Fear of Russia
Russia’s tragedy is that to convince outsiders of its strength, it must keep pretending it is holding back a force that would
Reason-Vision-Virtue
The European Crisis: Origin and Future
The release of the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy has brought into focus a fundamental tension that has been simmering since before
Rethinking China
Neither China nor the U.S. has an interest in undertaking military action against the other, especially in the absence of guaranteed success.
Russia’s New War of Attrition
Russia has used up all its other options. Ukraine has the benefit of defending its homeland, so morale might be on its
On the Upcoming Trump-Putin Summit and Tariffs on India
It’s possible that the upcoming meeting could be promising but not decisive. It’s possible Putin will continue his negotiating strategy of delaying
Turkey’s Time to Rise
In geopolitics, the emergence of a great power depends not just on having power and ambition, but also on the opportunity to
Putin’s Dilemma
Putin gambled on the chance he could break Ukraine in one last, ruthless effort. Instead, the U.S. has pulled close to NATO
The Nearing Crisis of Demographics
Each 50-year cycle is driven by a core technology that emerges to meet a social need. Over the past 50 years, the
How Wars End
Russia cannot occupy Ukraine, Ukraine cannot force the Russians out, and the negotiations must acknowledge as much. Putin will say he does
The Geopolitics of Tariffs
We are moving from a process of imperatives generated by geopolitical realities to the engineering of a new reality. Financial matters are