Mehmet Rakipoğlu
The transitional administration led by Ahmed Shara has adopted an inclusive and pragmatic approach, guided by the principle that “this revolution is the revolution of all those who have been oppressed under the regime for 14 years.” The freedoms and guarantees provided to different faith groups, such as Christian communities, are expected to strengthen social reconciliation during the country’s reconstruction process. Additionally, the temporary postponement of the conflict with Israel demonstrates a prioritization of internal stabilization and rebuilding efforts.
The military operations, which began on November 27 and concluded on December 8, 2024, resulting in the toppling of the Assad regime, have introduced new dynamics not only within Syria but also regionally. To conduct a comprehensive analysis of this new phase, the International Relations and Diplomacy (MID) delegation carried out field research and interviews in locations ranging from Azaz near the Türkiye border to Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and finally Damascus. These interviews and observations provided insights into the political, military, social, and humanitarian dimensions of Syria’s new situation. The findings highlight a range of elements, from security gaps to reconciliation centers and from depopulated zones to refugee returns. Furthermore, the role of Türkiye in Syria and the opportunities and risks associated with the new administration emerged as significant aspects of the research.
Following the popular uprising in Syria in 2011, the years of conflict and civil war reached a different phase between November 27 and December 8, 2024, culminating in the fall of the Assad regime. This new period marks a transformation in the country’s political and military structures, alongside an increased influence of international actors—most notably Türkiye—in the region. This article draws on field interviews conducted by the MID delegation across various cities and towns in Syria to examine the initial reflections of this transformation on the ground.
The Starting Point of the New Administration and Türkiye’s Role
Azaz, which was a small town before the civil war, has become a significant center as a result of Türkiye’s support and joint operations with the Syrian National Army (SNA). With the strengthening of infrastructure, it has been observed that security and public order issues in the city have largely been resolved. In particular, the diversification of infrastructure investments in areas under Türkiye’s control ensures a more consistent provision of healthcare, education, and basic needs. Alongside the development of the city’s administrative structure, migration and return dynamics have also come to the forefront.
The population in and around Azaz largely consists of civilians fleeing the regime, as well as PKK and ISIS terrorist organizations. If the new administration establishes stability, there is an increasing expectation for the return of those who migrated from cities such as Aleppo. In addition to significant migration to northern areas of Syria, such as Azaz and Idlib, Syrians with temporary refugee status in Türkiye are also expressing a desire to return to their original cities. In this context, factors accelerating returns include security, essential infrastructure (electricity, water, diesel), and seasonal conditions (summer months).
From a military perspective, there are certain priorities. Military officials in Azaz emphasize that for the revolution to be fully realized, it is essential for the PKK to be entirely removed from Syrian territory or disarmed. This issue brings attention to the ongoing security gap, particularly in the Tel Rifaat region. In areas recently liberated from PKK control, law and order have not been fully established due to risks such as tunnels and potential ambushes.
Aleppo: Returns to the Strategic City
Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city and one of its historical trade hubs, played a vital role as a strategic line of defense for the revolutionaries during the civil war. The fall of Aleppo led to the displacement of many civilians, with large numbers seeking refuge in Türkiye and other countries. According to the Ministry of Interior, approximately 60% of Syrian temporary refugees in Türkiye are originally from Aleppo. Therefore, it is anticipated that if the state-building process in Syria is completed and economic welfare is improved, returns to Aleppo will accelerate in the new period.
In this new phase, noticeable activity is emerging in Aleppo.
Following the “liberation” of Aleppo, there is a significant inclination among Aleppo-based refugees in Türkiye to return. Field interviews have revealed that families involved in trade are eager to return to Aleppo to revive their economic activities and contribute to the post-revolution reconstruction of the city. Moreover, the reactivation of local media outlets, such as television channels established by families before the revolution, is helping to boost social morale. However, it has been observed that security in rural areas has not yet been fully established.
The roads leading to Aleppo remain insecure. Although partial control has been achieved on the main roads, rural areas are still marked by depopulated zones. It appears that the regime had allowed a de facto state structure in the north before its fall, as evidenced by the complete destruction of towns like Kafr Hamrah and Hraytan and the forced displacement of their populations. It is believed that these areas are intended to serve as “buffer zones.”
Hama: Reconciliation Centers and the Security Bureaucracy
In Hama, the new administration has established “reconciliation centers” that invite individuals who collaborated with the regime or participated in the conflict to lay down their arms and return to a peaceful life. The outreach efforts of these centers, extending both to urban centers and rural areas, have increased public interest in reconciliation. While the urban centers are largely under control, rural areas remain problematic due to the presence of former regime militias and aggressive elements, such as armed Alawite groups. The presence of Hezbollah and Iran-linked militias in rural areas also necessitates the reinforcement of security forces. Deficiencies in military and logistical equipment, trained personnel, and basic infrastructure constitute the main security priorities in Hama.
Homs: Humanitarian Aid, Destruction, and Future Prospects
Homs, one of the central hubs of the revolutionary movement, has also witnessed some of the most severe destruction of the war. Investigations led by the White Helmets, who are active in many parts of Syria, have uncovered mass graves, corpses, and documentation of the regime’s brutal treatment of civilians. This highlights the critical role of local and international humanitarian organizations in Homs.
Following the collapse of the regime, Homs experienced a brief period of chaos. However, the public’s positive expectations for the new administration have gradually become more apparent. The city faces urgent needs, including addressing the shortage of security personnel, rebuilding destroyed buildings, and restructuring a corrupt administrative system eroded by bribery. Reports indicate that approximately 3,000 police officers and necessary equipment are required in the first phase of reconstruction. The increase in arms surrenders to reconciliation centers suggests that a more stable administration may emerge in the coming period.
Damascus: Strategic Decisions of the New Administration and the Perception of Türkiye
Findings from field research reveal that Türkiye’s critical role in the Syrian revolution is perceived positively, especially in Damascus. President Erdoğan’s consistent support for the Syrian people from the beginning of the revolution has established lasting trust in Türkiye regarding humanitarian aid, diplomacy, and military support. Following the revolution, Türkiye is anticipated to invest in various fields in Syria, including education, military infrastructure, and trade. Türkiye’s rapid intervention capacity in areas such as electricity infrastructure, solar energy facilities, bakeries, and food supply is viewed as critical by both the Damascus administration and the people. Notably, Türkiye’s contribution is seen as essential for meeting basic food, fuel, and agricultural needs, especially as populations in various Syrian cities increase or return.
The new administration is closely monitoring “demographic engineering” efforts by groups such as the PKK-PYD. Promoting population growth in Syria and encouraging the return of refugees are considered strategic goals to ensure the revolution’s permanence and prevent the risk of a counter-revolution.
The transitional administration led by Ahmed Shara has adopted an inclusive and pragmatic approach, emphasizing that “this revolution is the revolution of all those who were oppressed under the regime for 14 years.” Freedoms and guarantees provided to different faith groups, such as Christian communities, are expected to strengthen social reconciliation during the country’s reconstruction process. Additionally, the decision to postpone the conflict with Israel for the time being highlights a focus on internal stabilization and rebuilding activities.
Conclusion and Assessment
In conclusion, field research data indicate that the transitional period following the fall of the Assad regime represents a multifaceted and sensitive phase of transformation. While positive developments such as resolving security and infrastructure issues in priority centers like Azaz and Aleppo are evident, ongoing destruction and the presence of former militia elements in Homs and Hama necessitate comprehensive and decisive steps by the new administration.
Reconciliation centers established in urban areas have been observed to hold significant potential for fostering social peace and accelerating the return process. Türkiye’s pivotal role on the ground, particularly in humanitarian aid, military support, and diplomatic initiatives, has created a favorable perception. Opportunities for collaboration in infrastructure investments and migration management are seen as critical for ensuring the revolution’s permanence and the success of recovery efforts.
However, disarming the PKK, neutralizing Iranian-backed militias, and overseeing demographic changes across Syria remain strategic risks facing the new administration. Considering all these factors, the inclusive and pragmatic approach of the transitional administration led by Ahmed Shara demonstrates the potential to address the country’s complex problems. Nevertheless, coordinated action by national and international actors in areas such as repairing destroyed infrastructure, expanding basic security mechanisms, and strengthening the atmosphere of social reconciliation is essential. Achieving sustainable stability in Syria’s post-revolution era and continuing the reconstruction process based on social legitimacy will only be possible through such efforts.