Abdul Latif Al-Sadoun
The call to divide Iraq into autonomous regions, and even separate countries, is back on the agenda for discussion. It has been fading and emerging, then fading and emerging once again amid the manoeuvring and bickering among members of the ruling “elite” and is not at all connected or related to the concerns and interests of the ordinary Iraqi citizen.
This time, as in previous instances, the demand was not made by Kurdish or Sunni leaders, but by the godfather of the Shia Coordination Framework and leader of the Dawa Party, Nouri Al-Maliki. He based his argument on the fact that the Shia might be forced to divide Iraq (forced by whom, as the Shia are currently ruling Iraq?), hinting that in such a scenario, they would mono polise control of the oil, which, he claims, is in any case their right.
Immediately after Al-Maliki made this demand, the Coordination Framework chorus launched a frantic effort to adopt and support it. In the opinion of a parliamentarian from the ruling coalition, “The Shia are being blackmailed by the rest of the components,” which has prompted the demand for “Shia independence across nine provinces.”
Another Framework member called for “the right to self-determination,” paving the way for a popular referendum to establish what they called the “Shia Republic of Iraq”. The Kurds and the Sunnis would each establish their own state, and “everyone would be free to govern their new homelands as they see fit.”
Many others echoed the same sentiment, making their claims at a time when the concept of objective truth is fading, and lies are becoming the norm.
Much of the rhetoric we’ve observed reflects an organised campaign to promote the idea of division, inspired by external actors, primarily Iran, tied to the crushing defeat suffered by the Iranian imperial project and the axis of resistance, and the loss of its geopolitical foundations in the region.
This is what is behind the growing demand for the division of Iraq by the ruling Shia groups. Iran has consistently viewed Iraq as an obedient servant ever since it was able to impose its domination over the country following the US-led 2003 invasion that enabled it to do so. However, the plan drawn up by Qasem Soleimani (1957-2020), the architect of Iranian operations abroad and the one-time official responsible for the Iraqi file, did not promote the project of regions, as he was convinced that this idea could spread to Iran itself, which has numerous ethnic, religious and sectarian groups among its population. These communities may be attracted to the idea of autonomous regions as an expression of their ambition to obtain their national rights, especially since the Tehran regime has consistently denied these rights and suppressed those who demand them.
Furthermore, Soleimani himself dreamt of the day when the “Velayat-e Faqih” (Guardianship of the Jurist) state would swallow up all of Iraq, forming Iran’s “thirty-second province”. He laid the foundations for this by working to create Sunni followers and some from other communities, reassuring them of their interests and ambitions, forging alliances and agreements with them, or integrating them into the Baghdad government, in a manner that ultimately aligned with his own strategic vision.
The Shia in power in Iraq have always attacked and resisted proposals for partition and regional projects, as they did in the case of the 2017 independence referendum held by the rulers of autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan at the time.
However, the facts of the current position reveal that the situation is different for Iran today.
Following its regional setbacks, Iran feels the need to adapt a new situation that ensures its continued control over Iraq, placing it at the forefront of its security strategy. This situation would also lay the foundation for a future opening for Iran to take Iraq piece by piece, now that the possibility of swallowing it up in one fell swoop has diminished.
Thus, the idea of a “Shia region” consisting of nine provinces, if it is destined to materialise, appears to be the first step towards establishing Iraq’s practical integration into Iran’s geopolitics. All of this has led the leaders of the Coordination Framework to do a 180 degree turn and launch their dubious campaign calling for the division of Iraq into regions, and even separate countries.
What does Washington, Iraq’s primary sponsor, which is keen to keep it within the US orbit, think about this demand, having spent more than $3 trillion on the country and sacrificed thousands of American soldiers? The answer will reveal what’s happening.
Kaynak: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250313-whats-behind-the-demand-to-divide-iraq/
