Adnan Boynukara
There was a strong belief that ISIS, which emerged in Iraq and found space in Syria, would move to Africa after completing the mission it had “undertaken” in the Middle East. For a long time, news from Africa has confirmed that this has happened. Reports about the organization emerge from a different African country almost every day. In reality, this situation is a concrete example of how tested project organizations operate. The formula is very ordinary; direct the establishment of the organization, assign a mission, create derivative organizations when the assigned mission is completed and position the derivative organizations in other regions. This is exactly what is happening now.
A Global Organization
It is possible to talk about very different terrorist organizations around the world. However, the ones that have a global characteristic in terms of target and militant diversity are Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Because the goals of both of these organizations are very broad, their human resources are not based on a single ethnicity; they have the characteristic of including different ethnicities. ISIS is known to be a derivative of Al-Qaeda. However, there is no concrete information regarding the exact level of their relationship. During the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan and the subsequent civil war, many organizations affiliated with Al-Qaeda emerged. Among these, ISIS became the most widespread.
ISIS is an organization formed by the union of Al Qaeda in Iraq that emerged during the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the remaining Baath regime elements. In this sense, it can be said that ISIS is largely a continuation of Al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda is a global organization both in terms of recruitment from different countries and its objectives. However, two key differences distinguish ISIS from Al-Qaeda. First, ISIS has a broader global recruitment base than Al-Qaeda. In its early years in Iraq and Syria, the organization attracted militants from 110 different countries. The second difference lies in their definition of enemies and their approach to targeting. Both organizations view Westerners and Muslims who do not adhere to their ideology as enemies. However, they differ in their treatment of these individuals. ISIS considers everyone who does not adopt its ideology as people who must be killed. Al-Qaeda, on the other hand, labels non-combatant Muslims as “apostates” but sees their killing as an “extreme measure and a waste of resources.”
A good example to understand their targeting approach is Türkiye. ISIS views Türkiye, its government, and its people as apostates because they do not adhere to its ideology, and therefore, it justifies their killing. For this reason, when ISIS was at its peak, it carried out systematic terrorist attacks inside Türkiye, targeting all fault lines within the country. In contrast, Al-Qaeda and its affiliates see Türkiye as a target mainly due to its relations with the West, particularly its NATO ties.
ISIS Presence in Africa
Terrorist organizations in Africa can be categorized into traditional and new groups. Traditional groups include Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab, Al-Qaeda Maghreb, and their lower derivatives. These organizations have been destabilizing various countries for years. While Al-Shabaab targets Somalia’s state structure, Boko Haram operates in northeastern Nigeria, northern Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Mali. Al-Qaeda Maghreb targets the Northwest African geography.
However, the new and rapidly growing threat for African countries is ISIS and its derivative organizations. Activated in Iraq and Syria, ISIS has transferred its organizational, communication, and discourse strategies to Africa. In a short time, it has both gained ground and started operating in countries such as Somalia, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Libya, the Greater Sahara, West Africa, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
In Africa, ISIS operates not through a centralized structure but through regional provinces. This structure allows the organization to act flexibly and develop cooperation with local groups. The first region to examine under this framework is the ISIS’ West Africa Province (ISWAP) – the Sahel and Nigeria Region, which includes Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon. The second region is the ISIS’ Greater Sahara Province (ISGS) – the Sahel Region Province, covering Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. The third region is the ISIS’ Central Africa Province (ISCAP) – the Mozambique and Congo Region, including Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The fourth region is the ISIS’ Sinai Province (Egypt). The fifth is the ISIS’ Somalia Province (ISIS-Somalia), which operates in Somalia’s Puntland region.
The most concrete data on the increase in terrorist attacks in Africa comes from the Global Terrorism Index (GTI). According to the latest figures, in 2024, 51% (3,885 people) of the 7,555 people killed in terrorist attacks worldwide were in the Sahel region. This region .includes two key ISIS provinces in Africa: the “West Africa Province (ISWAP) – Sahel and Nigeria Region” and the “Greater Sahara Province (ISGS) – Sahel Region Province.”
At this point, it is also necessary to mention the ongoing civil war in Sudan. The conditions in Sudan provide a “suitable” environment for ISIS and its derivative groups to establish a presence. The state lacks control, institutions have collapsed, and there is no political initiative to end the war. There are widespread assessments that some groups involved in the conflict have the potential to transform into ISIS-like organizations. A concrete example of this was seen on January 23, when ISIS’s media outlet Al-Naba published an editorial calling for jihad in Sudan. In fact, in the Sudan case, it is worth considering ISIS and its derivatives’ involvement in the conflict alongside Iran and Russia’s attempts to establish bases on Sudan’s coasts, similar to what happened in Syria.
Factors That Support ISIS in Africa
ISIS’s growing strength in Africa should be seen both as a result of the organization’s global strategy and as a reflection of local conditions in Africa. After Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in 2019, ISIS transitioned from a centralized structure in Syria and Iraq to a more decentralized model. In this model, regional branches and affiliated groups became more prominent. Africa has been the fastest-growing and most active region within this framework.
Given the structures in Africa, it would be incorrect to attribute the organization’s expansion to a single factor. When the organizational structure is examined and discourse analysis is made, it is possible to classify the main factors/motivation sources that come to the fore as follows.
The first factor to consider is ideological motivation. ISIS’s ideological framework is rooted in Salafism. Its primary goal is to establish a Sharia-based system and overthrow Western-backed secular regimes. Such grand “visions” resonate with young generations who, due to deprivation, have no hope for the future.
Second, sociopolitical factors. These factors can be expressed as weak state structures, corruption, unemployment, poverty, income inequality and bad management. This factors directly affect the human resources of the terrorist organization.
The third motivation is ethnic and religious division. In many parts of Africa, ethnic and religious divisions are very sharp. This directs society to different pursuits. For example, in the Sahel region, there is a serious economic and social inequality between the Muslim-dominated north and the Christian-dominated south. Such disparities, even if they originate from different causes, can become tools exploited by these organizations.
The fourth is the connections that global organizations have established with local structures operating in Africa. The organizations that do this most intensively are Al-Qaeda and ISIS. This provides both legitimacy and logistical support to the organizations.
The fifth factor and source of motivation is the destruction caused by colonialists and the exploitation of resources in different formats. This becomes both anti-Western and a powerful argument used by organizations in their discourses.
Sixth, the failure of the states established after colonial rule to build a healthy system, to integrate into the global system, and the resulting weak state structure. This weak structure makes it easier for structures that benefit from global human resources, such as ISIS, to both organize and access the resources they need.
Seventh and finally, the post-colonial traumas of the countries. It is possible to list the problems caused by this trauma such as identity crisis, political instability, economic inadequacy, economic dependency, traumatic memory, and ‘derogatory’ attitudes towards the local people.
The Future of ISIS in Africa
It is clear that Africa is becoming the new center of ISIS. The most important reasons for this are that they can easily organize in regions where state authority is weak, they grow rapidly by forming alliances with local groups, and they have a ground on which they can sustain their financial presence. However, as African nations and regional collaborations strengthen, ISIS’s operational space may shrink. For example, in Mozambique, the group has begun to retreat with the support of Rwanda and South Africa. However, in the Sahel region and the Lake Chad Basin, ISIS remains a significant threat.
In the coming years, the presence and strength of ISIS in Africa will largely depend on the effectiveness of states and regional collaborations in counterterrorism efforts. If the target states, governments, regional partnerships, and the African Union fail to ensure good governance, the organization may grow even stronger. Thus, these two factors will be the key indicators of ISIS’s sustainability in Africa.
In this context, two future scenarios stand out. First, if countries act together, if the African Union gets involved, if regional collaborations for counterterrorism are established, and if funding and coordination issues are addressed, ISIS’s operational space may shrink, and its presence can be brought under control. The second scenario depends on the actions of states and their leaders. If governments fail to provide essential services, address the fundamental problems of the population, and ensure fair income distribution, public support for ISIS may increase, strengthening the organization. This possibility would pose a significant threat not only to Africa but also to global security.
What Can Be Done?
The necessary actions are quite clear. First and foremost, eliminating the underlying causes that fuel terrorist organizations, increasing regional cooperation in counterterrorism, developing joint strategies, addressing post-colonial traumas, reorganizing weak state structures, and/or building strong states could yield highly positive results. However, existing regional counterterrorism collaborations—such as the G5 Sahel Force, the SADC Mission in Mozambique, and AMISOM Somalia—have struggled to achieve effective outcomes due to limited resources, difficulties in maintaining successful counterterrorism tactics, infrastructure deficiencies, and weak communication with local populations. The United States is considering transferring the anti-ISIS coalition to Africa instead of dismantling it, but no concrete steps have been taken yet.
The expansion of ISIS in Africa is directly linked to structural issues such as weak state institutions, economic crises, and post-colonial traumas. By cooperating with local groups, the organization not only secures logistical support but also expands its propaganda networks. Key policy recommendations to counter this include increasing humanitarian aid projects that win the support of local communities, securing long-term funding for regional collaborations, developing development-focused solutions alongside military efforts, and supporting civil society initiatives against radicalization.
At this point, it is crucial to remember the issues caused by the neo-colonial dynamics pursued by Western countries in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. The new “colonial” approach, which continues to exploit valuable minerals, must be abandoned. Because the colonial trauma of African people continues, the approach that is being pursued is becoming ‘material’ for terrorist organizations, the poverty of Africans continues and the picture that emerges poses a real threat to global security. The first step to get out of this vicious circle is to see the details and understand situation well that we are talking about.