Yahya Sinwar Who Toppled Assad… Understanding the New Geopolitics

Let us pause for a moment. Let us set aside old ideas, outdated assumptions, and entrenched prejudices.

For we have entered an era where geopolitics in the Middle East and the world is undergoing a profound transformation.

If we fail to understand this change, we will find ourselves on the wrong side of history and miss the shift entirely.

Let me explain these evolving geopolitics to you.

Golden Momentum

A revolution took place in Syria, and within 11 days, the 61-year-old Baath regime collapsed.

An organization that was once labeled a “terrorist group” went on to manage Damascus with surprising success, astonishing everyone.

How could this happen?

This was one of the most frequent and bewildered questions I was asked after my trips to Syria.

All this confusion stems from a failure to fully grasp the changing geopolitical dynamics.

Geopolitics has changed, but how could it change so quickly?

I define this phenomenon as the “golden momentum,” where multiple factors converge within the same timeframe to create a rapid vortex that transforms everything around it.

More specifically, geopolitics shifted unexpectedly due to the simultaneous weakening of Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime in the region, combined with a change of administration in the United States and Israel’s aggressive policies.

The Syrian opposition swiftly seized the vacuum created by this golden momentum, altering the course of history within just 11 days.

Gaza as a Trigger for Change

If someone had told Yahya Sinwar that his action would topple the Assad regime rather than Netanyahu’s government, he probably wouldn’t have believed it. In fact, not just Sinwar—nobody would have believed it.

However, the famous action that took place on October 7 released such an immense amount of pent-up energy in the region that its seismic effects led to the fall of the regime in Syria, the sudden reshuffling of regional alliances, and the emergence of an entirely different picture.

Like the release of a strained spring, all the states aligned with Iran, Russia, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime quickly shifted direction, and the landscape transformed.

Türkiye established a strong alliance with the Damascus administration, with which it had been at odds for perhaps 50 years. Saudi Arabia and the UAE grew closer to Türkiye and began to forge robust ties with the Damascus administration.

The Lebanese government immediately visited Ankara and declared the start of a new era. The European Union sent delegation after delegation to Damascus, initiating communication with the new administration. Trump described Türkiye as the key country in the new era of Syria.

What’s even more remarkable is that the change in geopolitics will not stop here. If the countries in the region can interpret this change correctly, they will adapt to the new situation with a smooth transition, or the region will witness new regime changes.

The unease caused by Israeli and US aggression and occupation, which has impacted five countries, is another factor accelerating the rapid transformation in the region.

Everyone has come to realize that sitting at the so-called ‘Abrahamic Table’ and hoping to dine anew with Israel is no longer an option. This has made it necessary to set other tables, form alternative alliances, and create a new shield against occupation and aggression.

The New Geopolitics Will Foster New Alliances

Intellectuals in the region had already grasped this reality, but it seems the rulers of states have now come to understand it as well: If the countries in the region do not end their internal conflicts and form alliances, they will face either invasion or destruction in the future.

The fate of those who trusted Russia was evident in Syria.

Those who relied on the US found a divided and destabilized country in Iraq.

Those who believed in Israel’s “Abraham’s Table” deception were met with devastation and death.

All Muslim countries embroiled in sectarian strife, power struggles, and contests for dominance have been ruined, their cities destroyed, and their people left destitute.

Governments must now acknowledge this bitter truth.

And they must rally around these four fundamental principles:

1.​All divisions and differences must be set aside, and new alliances must be forged among Muslim countries.

2.​External powers must not be allowed to gain influence in the region or exploit its underground and surface resources.

3.​The sovereignty of nations must be respected.

4.​Every government must bring prosperity, freedom, and justice to its people and give them a greater voice in governance.

To achieve this, Muslim countries in the region should establish new systems to share their expertise in areas such as development, economy, defense industries, governance, and infrastructure.

The new institutions of this emerging geopolitics will soon take shape.