Work in 2050 – Three German Scenarios

Ever since feudal peasants were converted into factory workers, academics have tried to figure out not just what “work” under the often rather inhumane conditions of capitalism means, but also what the future of work might look like. There has been plenty of speculation about that future.

From steam to electricity to computers, and now to the most recent appearance of artificial intelligence (AI), speculation about the future of work has only intensified.

Yet, when asking AI itself, the picture that emerges (see above) is not all that encouraging. The AI-generated image of the future of work appears as if AI imagines that future as rather depressing, dark, male, and – most importantly – “headless.”

Does it mean we no longer need our brains? Will AI do the thinking? Is the future of work headless? Will AI be the headless horseman of Dante’s apocalyptic inferno?

German experts, however, have examined three potential (not AI-fabricated) scenarios of what the future of work might look like in the year 2050 – 25 years from today:

Scenario A: IT Acceleration & the Rise of Corporate Power – Capitalism Thrives

The first scenario is based on the acceleration of social, economic, and technological change. Not only has such change shaped the world of work in the past, but it might also shape our world in the near future, turning it into an ever more complex affair.

In the past, when confronted with technical changes, we have experienced – and will continue to experience – advantages and disadvantages, as well as intelligent (Tim Berners-Lee) and not-so-intelligent (Elon Musk) decisions.

However – and this comes after decades of dire predictions – most capitalist societies have not seen mass unemployment. Some of the reasons for this lie in the growth of many fields, such as:

synthetic biology,
artificial intelligence and robotics,
adjacent training and support services,
the expansion of cities in Asia and Africa,
the environmentally friendly conversion of cities in Europe and the Americas,
technologies merging artificial and human consciousness, VR (virtual reality),
educational tourism, self-realization, relationship coaching, and other services.

These and more have had a surprisingly stabilizing effect on society as well as on capitalism – though perhaps to a lesser extent on the environment, as our inaction on global warming has put us, as the head of the UN once said, “on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator.”

In Scenario A, it is predicted that there will be about six billion people of working age worldwide in 2050:

two billion employed,
two billion self-employed,
one billion in the informal economy, and
one billion unemployed or in further education.

For comparison, in the early 21st century there were about three billion employees; today, four billion are employed or self-employed.

Overall, Scenario A assumes – given past experience – that the number of jobs created by new technologies (NTs) exceeds the number of jobs that disappear.

Meanwhile, the Great Brain Race of the 2020s created the foundation for the development of human-like AI (artificial general intelligence, or AGI). This was further enhanced by the introduction of quantum computers into cloud computing during the 2030s.

As a result, unemployment increased, and self-employment became generally desirable – though far more difficult for about one billion people than for the rest.

However, the feared social unrest often imagined by “technology refuseniks” and anti-technology “back-to-nature” movements is unlikely to materialize, as in the past.

The future development in Scenario A is flanked by the introduction of various forms of basic income. Simultaneously, innovations in retirement research lead to the slow disappearance of the very concept of retirement – worldwide.

Many seniors, working in physically less demanding jobs, no longer “burden” society financially but engage in telework or home-based work – often at reduced hours – continuing to pay taxes accordingly.

The expansion of crowd-investing reduces both the concentration of wealth and the gap between rich and poor. However, fraud on the Internet remains ubiquitous, and states, companies, and social movements wage information wars.

Brain-to-brain interfaces can be hacked at any time. Criminal organizations influence government decisions, and many people begin to doubt who can be trusted at all.

Meanwhile, human consciousness and AI continue to merge worldwide. Occasionally, migratory movements shake global security. These can even trigger the disintegration of states (failed states), cause global recessions, and worsen climate change.

Worse still, extraordinary synergies among new technologies – AI, robotics, synthetic biology, 3D/4D printing, nanotechnology, IoT, autonomous vehicles, brain implants, VR/AR, blockchain, quantum computing, cloud analytics, and conscious technologies – enable huge corporations to become even bigger.

Their corporate power extends beyond any state control as a multipolar world emerges by 2050, with China, India, the EU, and Europe as major players.

Scenario B: Economic Turmoil, Climate Catastrophe – Capitalism and the Future of Despair

In this scenario, the politics of the early 21st century become bogged down in conflicts, corporate selfishness, and far-right populist policies. Unsurprisingly, new technologies destroy jobs and companies rather than creating them.

Wealth disparities and concentration continue to grow. Fewer and fewer people are needed to provide services or produce goods.

These problems have been known to decision-makers since the mid-2010s, but the formation of politically polarized camps worsens worldwide, setting:

progressives against far-right reactionaries,
executive power against democratic-legislative rule,
bio-hackers against traditionalists,
taxpayers against hyper-libertarian corporations,
Sunni against Shia, and fundamentalists against liberals,
countryside against city,
debtors against creditor countries,
scientists against far-right populists and conspiracy theorists, and
the poor against the rich.

From the mid-2020s onward, constructive discourse on economic policy becomes increasingly impossible. Asphyxiated in their respective filter bubbles, people listen only to their own online communities, which confirm their attitudes and prejudices.

Important decisions are postponed year after year. Education, the economy, and social cohesion suffer as a result.

In Scenario B, there will be six billion people of working age in 2050, but only:

one billion employed,
one billion self-employed,
two billion working in the informal economy, and
the rest unemployed or in further education.

For comparison, in the twentieth century there were about three billion employees; today, there are only two billion employed or self-employed.

Overall, new technologies create fewer jobs than they destroy. As a result, two-thirds of the world’s workforce remains either in the informal economy, the precariat, or unemployed.

Weakened economies and financial systems can no longer cope with aging societies and massive youth unemployment. Countermeasures such as a basic income are not introduced.

Events worldwide are dominated by conflict, cybercrime, terrorism, corporate militias, and organized crime. Again and again, organized crime, terrorism, and separatist attacks overlap.

The Internet of Things becomes a nightmare. Frequent breakdowns – whether temporary or permanent – affect entire systems. Worse, it remains unclear whether these failures are glitches, product errors, or deliberate sabotage.

The prevailing feeling of threat – propagandistically amplified by right-wing populists – intensifies. From an increasing number of failed states, migratory pressure rises, particularly from unemployed young people heading toward the still somewhat stable North.

Far-right nationalists, authoritarian political parties, and outright neo-Nazis achieve frequent election victories. The near dissolution of the EU looms.

The world’s inability to deal with global warming leads to more droughts and famines, while saltwater destroys once arable land. Regions with sufficient freshwater become rare.

Due to global warming, ocean acidification, and shifting currents, the climate grows ever more unpredictable. Coral reefs vanish; methane is released from the oceans.

Alienation and fear of the future spread. The digital divide widens into a chasm between AI users and those deprived of it.

The ever-sharpening shocks of the future lead to nihilism, anomie, and despair, flanked by a gradual and seemingly unstoppable dissolution of social and political norms, morality, and rules.

Rumors and conspiracy theories proliferate. Many believe that leaders from politics, business, and AI are collaborating to create a “hybrid AGI-trans institution”—a new authoritarian system of governance that will dominate the globe.

Meanwhile, a corporate-driven artificial superintelligence determines its own goals, independently of human control. The world loses its democratic order and devolves into a mixture of failed nation-states, all-powerful mega-corporations, local militias, ideologically driven terrorism, and organized crime.

Scenario C: Global Freedom, the Rise of Self-Actualization, and the Sustainable Economy

The global transition toward an economy of self-actualization and sustainability begins during the 2030s. For the first time in human history, humankind discusses what our civilization should look like and what should become of us – individually and as a species thriving within the natural environment.

Never before have films, mainstream media, online games, TV shows, social media, university summits, VR news, and online flash-mob teach-ins engaged so deeply with the “meaning of life” and the possibility of a humane and sustainable future.

It becomes increasingly clear that a historically unique change is underway: a shift away from hard labor toward machine work and ever-greater knowledge. Humanity is freed from the need to pursue jobs merely to earn a living, moving instead toward work for reasons of self-respect.

This marks the beginning of a transition from a work-oriented to a self-updating and sustainable economy.

During the 2020s, governments begin to realize the potentially negative consequences of AGI and other new technologies. They start exploring, on a large scale, the introduction of an unconditional basic income (UBI) and the promotion of self-employment.

UBI test runs in the early 21st century – in Brazil, Finland, Switzerland, and the Basque Country – were positive. Previous experiments in India, Liberia, Kenya, Namibia, and Uganda showed that most people handled the funds more responsibly than critics had assumed.

Instead of fostering laziness, UBI encouraged people to earn more; they became healthier, crime rates dropped, and both education and self-employment rose.

Cash flow forecasts show that from around 2030 onward, UBI can be sustainably financed, supported by a decline in living costs and increased government revenue from taxes on financial transactions, pollution, robots, and new technologies, as well as the closure of tax havens.

Fortunately, this coincides with AGI beginning to have a positive impact on employment.

In the 2030s, synthetic biology and life-prolonging interventions make people of advanced age more “robust.” Seniors become less of a financial burden and more active taxpayers.

There will be little difference between human and artificial consciousness. Every conceivable Turing test will be passed. Humans will engage in such deep, complex exchanges with AI that it will hardly matter who – or what – is speaking. Civilization becomes a continuum of consciousness and technology.

In Scenario C, there will be six billion people of working age worldwide in 2050:

one billion employed,
three billion self-employed,
one billion in the informal economy, and
one billion transitioning to self-employment.

Scenario C is not quite “Fully Automated Luxury Communism,” but it is the scenario German experts imagine to be the best outcome for the future of work and technology by 2050.

All scenarios convey that – from German experts’ point of view – far-reaching political measures will be necessary to redefine social, environmental, and economic systems and to overcome the challenges in the nexus of work and technology.

They suggest that policies ranging from unconditional basic income and strong environmental standards to taxes on robotic labor and the closing of tax loopholes will be essential.

Scenarios B and C emphasize that, in addition to the expansion of education in IT skills and general knowledge, STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) will be vital in addressing the challenges of labor market change.

To avoid the fallacies of techno-solutionism, this must be flanked by participatory and deliberative democracy – free from corporate lobbying and right-wing populism.

A new form of democratic decision-making must focus on the long-term interests of the general public.

The results presented here make one thing clear: to meet the complexity of these numerous challenges, we need a global and systemic perspective that takes into account the variety of contexts and issues involved.

Nevertheless, discourse about the future of work is still too often characterized by a narrow focus on individual topics. Instead, we need long-term and comprehensive goals for a sustainable economic and social order in which emerging technologies can serve as means to solve global challenges.

Thinking together – and establishing democratic processes for the global issues of climate change and cybersecurity alike – will open new perspectives for the future of work.

In particular, Germans see the positive vision of Scenario C, based on sustainability and democratic self-actualization, as outlining the possibilities of a new working paradigm. This, they argue, will be central to the future of work.

Source: https://znetwork.org/znetarticle/work-in-2050-three-german-scenarios/