What can Britannia rule anymore?

The great tune “Rule Britannia” once had meaning with this refrain: “Rule Britannia, Britain rules the waves!” 

But no more. In a stunning admission of reality, Britain’s First Sea Lord, the head of the Royal Navy and Royal Marine General Sir Gwynn Jenkins asserted that if his nation does not “step up” defense spending, Russia will control the seas. This was quite an admission. 

In 1970, the Royal Navy possessed nearly 250 warships of all types. Today, the number of serviceable surface warships is about 5 percent of that. As of this month, the Royal Navy maintains a fleet of 63 active and commissioned ships including Admiral Horatio Nelson’s flagship at the 1805 Battle of Trafalgar, HMS Victory.

 The major ships are two medium size aircraft carriers, four ballistic missile nuclear submarines in its deterrent force and six nuclear attack submarines, of which one is operational.

 There are also six guided missile destroyers, seven frigates, three Bay Class landing ships to support amphibious operations, eight minesweepers, 26 smaller patrol vessels, 10 ships from the Royal Fleet Auxiliary and four sealift ships from the merchant navy to support the auxiliary.

 The Air Arm has about 95 Merlin and Wildcat helicopters and 12 of a total of 35 F-35’s Lightning II’s shared with the Royal Air Force. About 32,000 sailors and marines operate the fleet.

 The question is what this fleet can do, aside from bolstering the nuclear deterrent. Suppose Argentina were to reoccupy the Falklands as it did in 1982. Could Britain and the Royal Navy respond with any expectation of recovering its territory?

 When Operation Corporate sailed from Portsmouth on April 5, 1982 under the command of Rear Admiral John (Sandy) Woodward, the task force numbered 127 ships.

 Forty-three were warships, including two aircraft carriers, destroyers, frigates, submarines and amphibious ships that included logistics and merchant ships “taken up from trade.” The force included 42 Harrier vertical take off and landing jets and about 200 helicopters from the total Royal Navy fleet of about 250 and 30,000 sailors, soldiers and Royal Marines.

 It is obvious that today’s Royal Navy is incapable of repeating that assignment. Sadly, the same is true of the British Army and the Royal Air Force, both down to shadows of what they both once were.

 In response, the Royal Navy is proposing a hybrid fleet that reverses the nature of unmanned and manned vessels. The high end, meaning more capable,  will be unmanned. The less expensive will be manned platforms.

 Outlined in the 2025 Strategic Defense Review, the Royal Navy will become an integrated manned and unmanned force relying on drones, AI for faster decision making and emphasis on anti-submarine warfare to prevent Russian Northern Fleet nuclear attack boats from breaking out into the Norwegian Sea and North Atlantic.

 Key elements are the ARMOR Force for networking the manned and unmanned ships, Atlantic Bastion for underwater defense oriented against the Russian Navy and autonomous drone trials called Rattler that will also use swarm tactics for experimentation.

 The concepts are based on how to merge and integrate manned and unmanned submarines, surface ships, aircraft and space into a single AI-driven network for command, control, communications, cyber, surveillance, intelligence and targeting. This is a very demanding requirement.

 Concepts include “plug and play” that uses modular systems that can be quickly deployed and exchanged on surface ships to facilitate integration and use of alternative mission packages depending on the operational and tactical conditions.

 Project Beehive is underway to procure 20 unmanned surface vessels for experimentation and development, along with testing jet powered drones based on aircraft carriers.

 All this is very optimistic. And the expectation is to achieve more combat power for less money than through deployment of traditional warships and submarines.  How successful the Royal Navy will be remains to be seen.

 The other major issue is how to transform defense industries traditionally oriented around building fairly large, exquisite and very expensive ships and aircraft to unmanned and AI drive command and control systems.

 Providing weapons for these unmanned vessels and the means to control their use in battle is non-trivial.  These issues were discussed by the author and the new Second Sea Lord in London.

 Among the many observers of the Royal Navy’s progress will be the U.S. Navy as it plans for its transformation. And, as in the past, it will not be the first time that Rule Britannia leads the way.

 

*Harlan Ullman, Ph.D., is UPI’s Arnaud deBorchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council, the chairman of two private companies and the principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. He and former United Kingdom Defense Chief David Richards are the authors of a forthcoming book on preventing strategic catastrophe.

 

Source: https://thehill.com/opinion/international/5648323-britain-royal-navy-decline/