Three Times Netanyahu Failed To Reignite War
The Likud party of the current Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahoo, is likely to lose tomorrows election.
The polls have shown such an outcome for some time which is why Netanyahoo has been looking for other ways to keep his position.
His preferred option until yesterday was to create an emergency by restarting a war against Iran. The retaliation coming from Iran, in the form of missiles and drone attacks on Israel, would have allowed him to postpone the election.
A secondary option is to provoke an emergency after the election but before a new government can be formed. That period can take between one to four months. This would allow him to call for a ‘unity government’, as Israel has done before when under stress, with Netanyahoo keeping his Prime Minister position
There were so far three attempts by Netanyahoo to create the wished-for emergency.
The first was to push U.S. President Donald Trump into leading another attack on Iran:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pressing to resume large-scale strikes against Iran, raising the risk of renewed regional conflict despite opposition from U.S. President Donald Trump, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday [Oct 21], citing people familiar with the matter.
Israel’s military had prepared a multi-day bombing campaign for the weekend of October 10, targeting electricity plants, nuclear facilities and Iranian regime assets, but the operation was shelved after Trump opposed restarting the conflict before the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, the FT reported.
In the second attempt Netanyahoo hoped to provoke a violent Iranian reaction by feinting an Israeli attack:
Dozens of Israeli fighter jets and refueling aircraft flew over Syria and Iraq toward the Iranian border earlier this week, following a flight path resembling an attack on Iran, Channel 12 reports, citing US officials.
The aircraft turned around shortly before reaching Iranian territory and returned to Israel, according to the report, which follows an earlier Fox News report on the matter.
Israel informed Washington of the sortie in advance, saying it was a military exercise and a show of force intended to deter Iran, the sources tell Channel 12. However, several sources say they believe some Israeli officials may have hoped Iran would fire on the aircraft, providing Israel with justification to launch an attack.
Netanyahoo will have hoped that any retaliation by Iran would cause the U.S. to join the fight.
The third attempt by Netanyahoo came over the weekend when he gave a direct order to the Israeli military to launch another attack on Iran.
The Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, received the order but refused to carry it out. He moreover ‘leaked’ the incident to the Channel 12 media outlet and took care that the report which followed would not be censored (machine translation):
An unprecedented confrontation between the Chief of Staff and the Prime Minister that reached its peak or low point in the last day
The issue in the background: the Iranian matter. And fears of Zamir that Netanyahu and the political echelon might lead to a scenario of miscalculation against Iran just before the elections
A security source: This is an action that could lead to a sudden confrontation with Iran at a sensitive and dramatic timing, and create a miscalculation.
Sources knowledgeable in the details: Fears of the military echelon from an attempt to exploit the Iranian issue for political momentum, a claim that political figures deny and argue is an outright lie. Be that as it may, 2 sources tell me that it reached a level where today during the visit to Palmachim the atmosphere in the discussion was extremely tense.
In the last few days, Zamir received some directive from the political echelon but requested an in-depth discussion before execution. He also requested legal authorizations signed by the political echelon for the move.
A senior security official: History will not forget the role Zamir played here in the last few days. And in the bottom line: An exceptional confrontation in its deviation between Zamir and Netanyahu, around the issue in Iran, just before the election date.
We emphasize: All the details in this report have been approved by the military censorship
The unprecedented publication of this conflict will cost Netanyahoo additional votes.
As his pre-election attempts to reignite a war with Iran have failed, Netanyahoo will now try to arrange for a post-election provocation which, he hopes, will increase his chances to stay in his post.
But with the military unwilling to follow unreasonable orders, he will have to look for different justifications or non-military means to ignite new strife.
The U.S. seems to be ready to strike Iran again but Trump has yet to give such an order. I doubt that he will do so before the midterm election and I currently see no reason for him to do it thereafter.
Today a high level delegation of the ‘Mecca coalition’, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, is visiting Tehran. There are also reports of delegates from Qatar.
The most important Saudi concern is their conflict with Yemen. On July 14 the Saudis broke the ceasefire in Yemen by attacking the Yemeni airport in Sanaa. The Yemeni Ansarullah coalition responded in kind. Yemen, having been devastated by previous Saudi and U.S. campaigns, has little to lose while the Saudis are sitting in a gilded glass house. Their airports and oil installations are now under continuous fire. The economic consequences are devastating.
The Saudis will ask Iran to ask Ansarullah to stop their attacks. Iran, and Ansarullah, may well do so, but it will cost Saudi Arabia a hefty political price. Iran may well ask the Saudis to break all relations with Israel and the U.S.
The Saudi dictator Muhammad bin Salman has sent his own brother Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman to Tehran. Pakistan has sent the chief of its army and Turkey its head of intelligence.
That the talks are at such a high level means that they are serious.