The midterms blue tsunami shows voters’ rejection of Trump’s agenda

The midterms blue tsunami shows voters’ rejection of Trump’s agenda more than their support for Democratic policies

Democratic candidates won against Republicans in many of the elections in the 2026 midterms yesterday, taking majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, and reversing partisan voting trends from 2024. In this Q&A, Thomas Gift takes stock of the results and what they might mean for the next two years—and for the 2028 presidential election.

What do you make of the results of yesterday’s midterm elections?

Yesterday wasn’t a blue wave for the Democrats—it was a tsunami. In a shocking (if not entirely surprising) rebuke of President Donald Trump and the Republicans, Democrats took seat after seat in toss-up races to complete a rout of their opponents. While Democrats were expected to take the House, it’s in close Senate races where Democrats showed the greatest strength. In Maine, longtime Republican Senator Susan Collins was defeated by Democrat Troy Jackson. In Texas, where liberal money usually goes to die, Democrat James Talarico beat Republican Ken Paxton. And in Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed trounced Republican Mike Rogers to become the first Muslim ever to win a US Senate seat. According to New York Times predictions, Democrats have secured 54 seats in the Senate and 228 seats in the House—easily a majority.

Why did Democrats win so big?

All elections have a narrative. Yesterday was a referendum on the Trump agenda more than it was an embrace of Democratic policies. Trump was ushered into office two years ago on a simple pair of promises: fix the affordability crisis and keep American entanglements abroad to a minimum. Instead, Trump doubled over, waging war against Iran, and in doing so, dramatically worsened inflation through increased fuel prices. Meanwhile, Trump has focused on seemingly petty projects like building a golden arch in Washington, putting his name on the Kennedy Center, erecting a new ballroom at the White House, revamping a public golf course near the Capitol, and renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. Americans yesterday didn’t vote for progressive policies. They voted against an administration that seemingly did everything except keep its 2024 promises to voters.

How will Trump’s agenda be affected?

Finally, it can be said: we’ve reached peak MAGA. Now, Trump starts his days as a lame duck president. But that doesn’t mean he lacks any power. While he likely will be forced to combat a slew of investigations in the House over the next two years, Trump’s powers on foreign policy remain largely untouched by the Democrats’ victories. That means how he wages war in Iran, negotiates deals in the Middle East, imposes tariffs, and tries to end the war in Ukraine aren’t affected by Congress turning blue. Moreover, of course, Trump retains the power of executive action, which he’s already used liberally to bypass congressional approval for various policies and projects. What we can say is that any domestic agenda by the president will come grinding to a halt, and we’re unlikely to see any significant pieces of legislation pass in the next two years.

What do Democratic victories mean for the 2028 presidential race?

Tuesday was a taste of victory for Democrats, but we should be careful about reading too much into it for 2028. Big losses for Republicans don’t necessarily mean that the next Republican presidential nominee—whether that’s Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, or someone else—will start their campaigns on the back foot. There’s plenty of time for the Democrats to make a mess of their new majority. Perhaps the most damaging path for Democrats is to let their newfound investigative powers go to their heads, or even worse, pursue impeachment of Trump again. We remember how that went the first two times. Impeachment buoyed Republicans, made Democrats look distracted and vindictive, and helped push Trump back into office in the 2024 election after many analysts predicted his inevitable demise. Above all, Democrats should resist the temptation to overreach.

Source : https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2026/11/04/democrat-blue-tsunami-midterms/