The Heartland vs. the Rimland: Decoding India and China’s Indian Ocean Rivalry
China’s ambitions extend far beyond the Indian Ocean. Its objective is not regional dominance but global positioning. For this, it finds the Heartland approach—beginning from the African interior and projecting influence toward the coasts—particularly suited. By embedding itself deeply within countries like Ethiopia, Zambia and the DRC, China creates long-term influence networks insulated from maritime competition.
A consistent pattern is visible. Chinese-origin companies begin with small local-level projects. These gradually grow into larger development engagements—roads, industrial zones, digital infrastructure—often backed by concessional loans or development assistance. Over time, a trust-based but dependency-leaning relationship forms. China later leverages this foundation to secure political influence, resource access rights, and strategically valuable footholds. A notable example often cited is the 99-year lease of the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka after the nation struggled with repayment of Chinese loans.
This inside-out progression ultimately provides China with both continental reach and eventual coastal proximity, creating pathways to the Western Indian Ocean without relying solely on maritime access.
India’s Outside-In Maritime Logic
In contrast, India’s approach is shaped by its geography, diplomatic culture and regional aspirations. India is fundamentally a maritime power in the IOR—the Indian Ocean Region—and its foreign policy has long emphasized cooperation rather than imposition. The Rimland model complements these instincts.
India’s focus begins with island states and coastal nations—Mauritius, Seychelles, Kenya and Mozambique—where it has cultivated relationships built on trust, training and maritime security cooperation. These partnerships reflect India’s self-presentation as a responsible regional actor committed to stability and maritime integrity. Through initiatives such as MAHASAGAR, India seeks to bring these countries onto a common platform for shared maritime awareness and security.
Unlike China’s deliberate push for continental depth, India’s strength lies in its ability to build legitimacy along the IOR’s outer ring and move inward through diplomatic goodwill, naval presence and long-standing people-to-people ties. The Indian military’s extensive peacekeeping record in Africa, including contributions of over 200,000 personnel to nearly 50 UN missions worldwide since the 1950s, contributes to India being perceived as calm, reliable and non-hegemonic.
A Distributed Rimland
India’s partnerships cannot be reduced to a single “strongest anchor”. Mauritius offers cultural proximity and strategic location; Kenya provides continental connectivity and political influence in East Africa; Mozambique serves as a maritime gateway with energy and sea-lane significance. Each partner contributes uniquely to a distributed rimland architecture that prioritises cooperation over hierarchy.
A Region-Wide Competition
The common assumption that India and China will collide in one specific location—Djibouti, the Mozambique Channel or the East African coast—misses the larger picture. The IOR has effectively become a region-wide contest of reach, influence and presence. China is expanding globally; India is securing its immediate neighborhood. These paths inevitably intersect not at one chokepoint but across the entire oceanic arena.
What the World Is Overlooking
Analysts often treat Africa and the Indian Ocean as two separate geopolitical conversations. But at a deeper level, the timeless classical Heartland–Rimland dynamic is unfolding in real time. China’s continental push and India’s maritime perimeter-building represent opposing but interconnected approaches to shaping the IOR’s strategic future.
Conclusion
The India–China competition in the IOR is not defined by dramatic confrontations but by contrasting strategic logics. China’s inside-out Heartland model gives it continental depth and eventual access to the seas. India’s outside-in Rimland model strengthens cooperation, stability and legitimacy along the ocean’s perimeter. Recognizing this duality is essential to understanding how the Indian Ocean’s geopolitical landscape will evolve in the coming decades.