The Future of Muslim Societies in the Shadow of Traumas

Disasters and historical hostilities caused by other groups throughout history play a significant role in the formation of identities and the construction of the future for societies and large groups. Such events are recorded in collective memory as “seçilmiş travma” (“chosen trauma”) and are reproduced across generations. Vamık Volkan defines chosen trauma as “the imagined sharing and reproduction by subsequent generations of the emotions of great loss, shame, humiliation, and helplessness experienced in conflict processes where one large group has been subjected to another group.” Both individually and collectively, chosen traumas become an inseparable component of the identity of the group that experienced them and a crucial factor in shaping their future.

Two major catastrophes in the last century played a significant role in Muslim societies by being recorded in collective memory as “seçilmiş travma” (“chosen trauma”) and reproduced by being passed down to subsequent generations. The first of these traumas arose with the collapse of the Ottoman Empire after World War I, deepened by the occupation of Muslim lands by Western powers and their colonial interventions in the Islamic way of life. The second trauma emerged with the establishment of Israel in 1948, exacerbated by the humiliating defeat of Arab states against Israel in 1967, the occupation of Jerusalem, and the forced displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from their homeland.

In this article, the instability that emerged throughout the region with the Arab Spring process that began in 2010, and the devastating Israeli attacks after October 7, 2023, targeting Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, will be evaluated as “seçilmiş travma” (“chosen trauma”). The profound losses, shame, humiliation, and feelings of helplessness experienced by Muslim societies as a result of these events will be analyzed, particularly regarding their potential effects on the identities and future constructs of Muslim communities.

The First Great Trauma in the Islamic World: The Collapse of the Ottoman Order

The first major trauma that deeply affected the Islamic world in the last century emerged with the collapse of the Ottoman order following World War I. This trauma was exacerbated by the occupation of Muslim lands by Western powers and their fragmentation into artificial borders under the mandate system, leading to colonization.

The colonial powers’ interventions in the Islamic way of life not only threatened the religious values and practices of Muslim societies but also undermined their cultural, economic, and political independence. This caused a profound shock in Muslim societies, registering as “seçilmiş travma” (“chosen trauma”) in collective memory. In particular, reforms imposed by Western colonial powers under the guise of modernization weakened traditional Islamic structures and forced societies to question their identities.

The resulting disillusionment triggered a quest among Muslim societies to rebuild their independence and authentic identities. This search gave rise to distinct ideological and political movements across different regions. In India, Islamic-based liberation movements like Cemaat-i İslami (Jamaat-e-Islami) emerged, while in the Middle East, more secular and anti-imperialist tendencies gained momentum. In this context, reactions against Western colonial practices strengthened calls for a return to Islamic values on one hand while laying the groundwork for the adoption of ideologies such as secular nationalism and socialism on the other.

In the Middle East, the adoption of Socialist Arab Nationalism by both states and societies became the most significant reflection of this process. Socialist Arab Nationalism rose as a “liberation ideology” against Western imperialism and garnered broad social support in the Arab world. This ideology emphasized socialist and secular concepts rather than Islamic motifs in the struggle against imperialism.

For instance, under the leadership of Gamal Abdel Nasser, Nasırizm (Nasserism) gained prominence in Egypt, developing an ideology that combined the Arab peoples’ aspirations for economic development, social justice, and national independence with socialism. This ideology guided the quest for decolonization in the Arab world and inspired political movements in many Arab countries. Beginning in the 1950s, military coups in numerous Arab nations led to the establishment of regimes that embraced Socialist Arab Nationalism.

The 1967 Trauma and the Rise of Anti-Imperialist Islamist Discourse

The second trauma in the Islamic world after World War II emerged with the establishment of Israel in 1948 and deepened following the humiliating defeat of Arab states against Israel in 1967. During this period, the occupation of the sacred Muslim site of Jerusalem by Israel caused profound disappointment, anger, and helplessness across the Islamic world. The establishment of Israel and its expanding occupation of Palestinian territories became an issue affecting not only Palestinian Muslims but the entire Islamic world, strengthening anti-imperialist and anti-Zionist tendencies across Islamic geography.

In the 1967 war, Israel’s occupation of East Jerusalem, the West Bank, Gaza, the Sinai Peninsula, and the Golan Heights resulted in feelings of great loss, shame, humiliation, and helplessness among Muslim societies, registering as “seçilmiş travma” (“chosen trauma”) in collective memory. The heavy defeat of the once “mighty” Arab armies at the hands of Israel significantly diminished the appeal of Socialist Arab Nationalism, which had previously been embraced as an ideology of liberation.

The humiliating defeat of the once “mighty” Arab armies by Israel in this war caused Socialist Arab Nationalism, previously embraced as a liberation ideology, to lose much of its appeal. Egypt, led by one of the key proponents of this ideology, Gamal Abdel Nasser, suffered a significant loss of prestige after the war, and the influence of Nasserism as a “liberation ideology” weakened considerably.

During this period, Israel’s expansionist policies and demographic engineering strategies led to the forced displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians. The humanitarian crisis faced by Palestinian refugees highlighted the collective failure of states in the Arab world and eroded trust in state institutions among Muslim societies. In particular, the inability of Arab states to mount an effective resistance against Israel reinforced the perception of the inadequacy of state actors in the struggle against the colonial order, paving the way for the rise of non-state actors and the emergence of community-based movements.

In this context, Islamism emerged as the “new liberation ideology” in the second half of the 20th century. With a discourse that transcended national borders, Islamism centered not only on the Palestinian issue but also on the broader struggle against colonialism and imperialism across the Islamic world. Three key events were decisive in the rise of Islamism:

The Iranian Islamic Revolution (1979): The overthrow of the Shah’s regime in Iran and the establishment of an Islamist government led by Imam Khomeini created significant repercussions in the Islamic world. This revolution demonstrated that Islamism could emerge as a modern revolutionary movement, becoming a powerful model for Muslim societies.

The Afghanistan Jihad (1980s): The resistance against the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan transformed the concept of jihad into a global source of motivation within the Islamic world. The resistance in Afghanistan created a platform for solidarity and struggle among Muslim fighters, both locally and internationally.

The Rise of Hamas in Palestine: Founded in 1987, Hamas framed the Palestinian resistance against Israel within an Islamic context, distinguishing itself from the secular and nationalist Palestinian resistance organizations. The emergence of Hamas laid the groundwork for Islamism to present an alternative solution to the Palestinian issue.

In light of these developments, Islamism became influential with its anti-imperialist rhetoric and garnered widespread support. Rather than adhering to traditional nation-state-centered ideologies, Islamism emerged as a movement advocating the universal values of Islam and emphasizing the pursuit of political, economic, and social justice. This process can be considered one of the major milestones of ideological restructuring in the Islamic world.

“Chosen Traumas” in Muslim Societies and Their Impact on the Future
In addition to traumas such as the collapse of the Ottoman order and the establishment of Israel, which deeply affected the sociopolitical structure of the Islamic world and were registered as “seçilmiş travma” (“chosen trauma”) in collective memory, the Islamic world faced a new trauma in the early 2000s.

The most recent “seçilmiş travma” (“chosen trauma”) experienced by the Islamic world began with the failure of demands for political change during the Arab Spring, which started in 2010, and deepened with Israel’s large-scale destructive attacks in 2023. The Arab Spring began as a process in which the peoples of the region expressed their demands for political change, overthrew oppressive regimes, and were led by Islamist movements. However, the failure to achieve political transformation—starting with the 2013 military coup against Mohamed Morsi in Egypt and continuing with civil wars in Libya, Syria, and Yemen—was seen as a failure of Islamist structures.

Finally, on October 7, 2023, Israel’s devastating attacks—originating in Palestine and spreading to Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq—further deepened the humanitarian tragedy in Gaza. The attacks, which amounted to genocide, resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent civilians, the displacement of hundreds of thousands, and a major humanitarian crisis. Widely echoed on social media, this tragedy caused deep shame and anger in Muslim societies. At the same time, the ineffectiveness of regional states and Islamist movements in stopping Israel’s genocidal campaign led to a significant erosion of trust in the Palestinian issue.

At the time this article was written, the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria had recently fallen. While the overthrow of the Baath regime after thirteen years of civil war is an extremely positive development, the instability in Syria and the profound transformations in the region’s security architecture over the past decade raise significant uncertainties about the future of the “Syrian Revolution.”

The Possible Impact of Selected Traumas on the Future of the Islamic World
The developments following October 7 are expected to shape three main orientations within Muslim societies:

1. The Shift from Ummahism to Nationalist and Micro-Nationalist Orientations
The political instability that emerged across the region following the Arab Spring and the helplessness experienced after the Israeli attacks are expected to diminish the effectiveness of ummahist approaches, leading to the strengthening of narrower national or micro-nationalist understandings. The increasing apathy among the political elites of the Islamic world toward the Palestinian issue, and the reflection of this indifference among Muslim societies, can be interpreted as the first signs that the people of the region are focusing on local issues rather than problems concerning the entire Islamic world.

2. The Rise of Powerful and Charismatic Leader Figures
The heavy human and economic costs of the political instability that emerged across the region during the Arab Spring have increased the demand for strong leaders within Muslim societies, mirroring trends in the rest of the world. Leaders such as Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), with their development programs and stabilizing policies within national borders, have seen their popularity rise significantly.

Both leaders’ success in shielding their countries from the instability of the Arab Spring, and the fact that Turkey and Saudi Arabia emerged stronger from this process, appears to have increased trust not only in their personal attributes but also in the institution of leadership itself. In the future, it is likely that strong statesmen will be viewed as guarantors of political stability and security, with such leaders coming to the forefront through national projects.

3. The Strengthening of Secular Tendencies
Across the region, secularism has recently been gaining more support, particularly through leaders focusing on economic development and modernization projects. Saudi Arabia’s “Ilımlı İslam” (“Moderate Islam”) policies under the leadership of MbS and Turkey’s similar prioritization of economic growth and national security are expected to accelerate this trend.

The crisis of confidence caused by the failure of Islamist movements to achieve the expected success in political transformation may contribute to the renewed popularity of secular ideologies.

Conclusion: A New Era in the Islamic World
The traumas experienced in the Islamic world over the last hundred years have led to the emergence of different liberation ideologies in each period. In the post-Ottoman era, anti-imperialist and nationalist ideologies rose to prominence, while the establishment of Israel and the Arab-Israeli wars caused secular and nationalist ideologies to lose their appeal, paving the way for Islamist approaches to come to the fore.

However, the process that began with the Arab Spring in 2010 and deepened in 2023 with Israel’s devastating attacks across the Middle East will lead to a serious period of introspection for Islamism.

In this new era, societies moving away from ummahism and toward national priorities may be shaped by the influence of strong leader figures and secular trends. How these trends will impact regional stability and the future of the Islamic world will be the most important question of the coming years.