The China-Russia-North Korea Alliance That Needs No Name

The West should not be blinded by what is plain to see.

The image of Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong-un standing together at Tiananmen Square was a masterclass in political theatre, a chilling and unambiguous declaration for many in the West of a new anti-Western axis. Yet, some observers have pointed to the conspicuous absence of a formal trilateral summit as evidence of the bloc’s limits, suggesting Beijing remains reluctant to be locked into a rigid alliance with Moscow and Pyongyang.

This view, however, misdiagnoses the nature of the challenge. The truth is not that China is a reluctant partner, but that it is methodically building an alliance without a name. Beijing’s entire strategy is to avoid the formal trappings of an “alliance” with its rigid obligations, while reaping all the benefits of one through deniable, “grey zone” cooperation.

 The lack of a formal summit was not a bug; it was a feature. It aligns perfectly with Beijing’s foundational foreign policy principle of “non-alliance” since the early 1980s, to preserve strategic autonomy and avoid entrapment in the conflicts of others. This allows China to maintain maximum flexibility while signalling alignment.

 Observers who fixate on the absence of an official trilateral ceremony are missing the substance of a deeply functional partnership.

 The “reluctant dragon” narrative is seductive because it plays into the West’s hope that China remains a pragmatic actor that can be peeled away from its more volatile partners. But the evidence points to the contrary. Xi was not a passive host; he was the director of this entire production. A similar photo-op did not arise in Moscow in May when Kim did not attend the May parade, instead allowing Xi to stage the triumvirate’s formal debut in Beijing rather than on Putin’s home ground. Xi cemented his role as the undisputed architect of this new axis. His actions reveal a leader who is confident and in control, not one being taken advantage of.

 The true strength of this triumvirate lies not in a public treaty, but in its functional, interlocking, and mutually reinforcing gains. It is a system designed for maximum effect with minimum accountability.

 For Putin, the summit provided an immediate, existential victory. Standing beside Xi was a powerful antidote to Western narratives of his diplomatic isolation, conferring invaluable political legitimacy on the global stage. More concretely, the event solidified a critical military supply chain from North Korea, ensuring a continued flow of artillery shells and ballistic missiles for his war in Ukraine. Finally, by pulling North Korea deeper into the conflict, Putin successfully opens a second front of pressure on the United States in Northeast Asia, forcing Washington to divide its strategic attention and resources.

 For Kim, the visit marked his triumphant graduation from isolated pariah to valued junior partner. This was the successful realisation of his “security from Russia, economy from China” strategy. By providing Russia with critical military assets, the shift from aid recipient to arms provider grants him unprecedented agency. In his bilateral meeting with Xi, he explicitly requested deeper economic cooperation, securing the lifeline that only Beijing can provide through the “livelihood” loophole in UN sanctions.

 This new alignment renders his nuclear arsenal non-negotiable, turning the US policy of “denuclearisation” into an obsolete illusion. This reality was underscored by a subtle yet seismic shift during the visit: for the first time in years, Beijing’s official readouts conspicuously avoided any reference to the “denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula”. The deliberate omission of long-standing diplomatic language amounts to a quiet but profound concession to Pyongyang.

 While Putin secured a lifeline and Kim gained new status, the ultimate strategic gains belong to Xi’s China. The summit and parade were the public manifestation of a profound shift in China’s strategic posture: a deep “psychological decoupling” from the West. Beijing has concluded that strategic reconciliation with Washington is no longer a viable goal and is now actively pursuing a new world order. The triumvirate forms the hard-power nucleus of this new posture, a long-term strategy to expand influence by exploiting perceived American missteps. By endorsing Pyongyang’s closer ties with Moscow, Beijing shares the burden of managing the Kim regime, ensuring it remains a permanent security dilemma for the United States and its key Asian allies while providing political cover to accelerate its own “grey zone” cooperation.

 The most dangerous mistake Washington and its allies could make is to misdiagnose the nature of this challenge. To fixate on the lack of a formal alliance is to prepare for the last war. The threat is not a new NATO versus Warsaw Pact, but a fluid, adaptable network that operates in the seams of international law, leveraging ambiguity and plausible deniability.

 The Korean War serves as a powerful historical lesson, demonstrating how this same alignment of powers, when faced with a US-led bloc, coalesced into a devastating military coalition. The image from Beijing, therefore, should not be seen as a mere photograph, but as a sober reminder that a functional alliance does not require a formal name to be real, coherent, and profoundly dangerous.

* Seong-Hyon Lee, PhD, is a senior fellow at the George H. W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations and an associate-in-research at the Harvard University Asia Centre. He resides in Boston.

Source: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/china-russia-north-korea-alliance-needs-no-name