The Balance of Coercive Leverage

On 30 June 2026, I was on “Judging Freedom” talking with the Judge about the West’s foolish policy of helping Ukraine to “accelerate” its drone and missile attacks on the Russian homeland. And this includes President Trump, who appears to think Ukraine is doing the right thing and that he should applaud and support Kyiv. The West is also talking about taking further steps to damage the Russian economy. Unsurprisingly, Putin and other Russian leaders are very angry and Putin, who is being criticized for not waging the war vigorously enough, has now thrown down the gauntlet. Hard to see how this story has a happy ending.

The Judge and I also talked about the Iran war. I emphasized that the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by Tehran and Washington on 17 June 2026 was a clear victory for Iran. President Trump was forced to sign this surrender document because the balance of coercive leverage clearly favors Iran and there is little the US can do to shift that balance in its favor. If you want evidence, look at the tit-for tat exchanges that took place this past weekend (26-28 June 2026) between Iran and the US. Iran won. The issue at play was whether Iran completely controls the movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. The US obviously said no. At the end of this brief exchange, the US conceded defeat — Iran controls the Strait.

Of course, some say that it is just a matter of time before the US takes the gloves off and restarts the bombing campaign against Iran. Escalation is coming! That outcome is hard to imagine. The air war ended on 8 April 2026 (almost three months ago) and the Trump administration has shown hardly any interest in a second round since then. Why? First, we don’t have the necessary munitions and weapons. Indeed our inventories are at dangerously low levels, which is one reason we stopped the war on 8 April 2026. Second, Iran has a second-strike capability — think about its huge inventory of deadly missiles and drones that wreaked havoc on Israel, the Gulf states, and US bases in the region — and if we go up the escalation ladder, advantage Iran.

Some might say, it is time to turn the Israelis loose and let them do the job. The problem there is that they are thoroughly dependent on the US; they cannot wage a sustained bombing campaign against Iran without massive help from the US, which we cannot afford to give them. Think of all the precious defensive missile the US expended defending Israel from Iranian missile attacks during the 12-Day War (13-25 June 2025) and in the present war. Israel cannot defend itself, much less launch an independent bombing campaign against Iran. Moreover, whether Israel or the US bombs Iran doesn’t change the fact that Iran has a formidable second strike capability and escalation dominance.

All of this is to say the Iranians are going to be well-positioned to drive a hard bargain in future negotiations over the MOU. Of course, at the same time, the Israelis — who played the key role in convincing Trump to launch this remarkably foolish war — will be working overtime with their loyal supporters in the US to undermine Trump’s efforts to end the conflict. Indeed, Israel might even launch limited air strikes against Iran to try to pull the US into the fight. It is hard for me to see how anyone can seriously argue that Israel is a strategic asset for the US. In fact, it is a strategic liability, and a moral liability as well.

Source: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/the-balance-of-coercive-leverage