Russia’s Imperial Mindset Hasn’t Changed

If its imperial vision isn’t decisively defeated, any peace agreement with Russia over Ukraine is guaranteed to be merely temporary.

Once upon a time, Vladislav Surkov was a key architect of Russia’s political system and a close adviser to its long-serving strongman president, Vladimir Putin. More recently, however, the man who was once known as “Putin’s brain” fell out of favor in the Kremlin’s corridors of power, eventually departing the Russian political scene altogether.

Yet Surkov remains a figure of considerable controversy, with some observers crediting him with exerting continued influence over the Kremlin’s worldview. So when he recently sat down for an interview with France’s L’Express newspaper—his first since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2023—it was inevitably a subject of intense interest for Russia-watchers in the West.

They were not disappointed. Surkov used the occasion to expound upon the current state and future dimensions of the so-called “Russian World” (Russkiy Mir)—a concept which he himself helped to popularize. In the process, he gave the international community a glimpse into what Moscow is thinking about its geopolitical fortunes, and where the Kremlin might be headed next.

Most immediately, of course, this concerns Ukraine. In an echo of Putin, Surkov argues that Ukraine is not a real state, but rather an “artificial political entity.” He also posits that Russian victory—or, as he puts it, the “military or military and diplomatic crushing of Ukraine”—is inevitable.

But, for Surkov, that would represent just the start. “The Russian world has no borders,” he insists. “The Russian world is everywhere there is Russian influence, in one form or another: cultural, informational, military, economic, ideological or humanitarian…In other words, it is everywhere.”

Moreover, Surkov is convinced that its expansion is inevitable. “The extent of our influence varies greatly from region to region, but it is never zero,” he argues. “So we will spread out in all directions, as far as God wills and as strong as we are. The important thing is not to get carried away and not to take on too big a piece.”

Surkov is hardly alone in this conviction. It also animates the thinking of prominent Russian ideologues like Aleksandr Dugin, the champion of the country’s infamous “Eurasianist” movement, who for years has argued that for Russia, “The loss of imperial scale…means the end and failure of their participation in civilization, the defeat of their spiritual and cultural system of values…”

It also mirrors the thinking of President Vladimir Putin himself. In his rambling interview with former Fox News host and U.S. media personality Tucker Carlson last year, Putin offered a flawed and selective version of history in which he made the case for both Russian imperialism and further territorial expansion.

In Europe, at least, the consequences of this sort of thinking are well understood. Strategists there are now actively debating how long it might take for Russia to regroup after its recent battlefield losses in Ukraine and be able to present a redoubled threat to the continent. What most definitely is not in doubt, though, is that it invariably will.

That should be an essential realization for America, too. Since taking office earlier this year, the Trump administration has worked overtime to cobble together some sort of arrangement to end the war in Ukraine. In the process, Washington has drifted closer diplomatically to Moscow—and appears to have accepted that Russia will remain in control of at least some of the parts of Ukraine it has illegally invaded and seized over the past three years. What it hasn’t yet done, however, is articulate conditions that would make it harder for Putin’s regime to resume its aggression in the future, whether against Ukraine or against other territories that he covets.

Doing so should be a top priority for the White House. If the imperial vision of a limitless Russia, articulated by Surkov and his former boss, isn’t decisively defeated, any peace agreement with Moscow is guaranteed to be merely temporary. Just ask “Putin’s brain.”

*Ilan Berman is Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC. An expert on regional security in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Russian Federation, he has consulted for the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency as well as the U.S. Departments of State and Defense, and provided assistance on foreign policy and national security issues to a range of governmental agencies and congressional offices.

Source: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/russias-imperial-mindset-hasnt-changed