Middle East on edge: Israel-Iran escalation threatens regional stability

Just after three in the morning, sirens sounded across Israel, and Israel’s Defense Minister announced a preemptive strike against Iran.

Countries in the Middle East went to bed on June 12, hoping that a meeting scheduled for Sunday between the US and Iran in Oman could reduce the tensions that had grown this week.

The region felt that it might have dodged a bullet on Wednesday and Thursday after reports emerged that the US was withdrawing State Department personnel from Iraq and the Gulf.

US President Donald Trump’s comments about a deal with Iran and reports that the US likely would be displeased by an Israeli attack, or let Israel go it alone, made it seem that de-escalation was more likely than war.

It turns out that instead of great expectations, the region may have gotten the sum of all fears. Just after three in the morning, sirens sounded across Israel, and Israel’s Defense Minister announced a preemptive strike against Iran. His office said that a missile and drone attack against the State of Israel and its civilian population was expected.

Israel and Iran traded blows in 2024. In two instances, Iran sent hundreds of missiles and drones to attack Israel. Israel also retaliated in limited precision strikes against air defenses. This was a curtain raiser on the capabilities of both countries. Israel has shown it can launch air raids across thousands of miles to strike the Houthis.

The region knows that Israel has these capabilities. However, Iran has also said it could retaliate against the US or in other ways. That has put the US on alert in the Gulf and caused concern in Iraq.

Iran has proxies in Iraq, a group of militias called the Popular Mobilization Forces. It also has the Houthis in Yemen. Its other proxies, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah, are much weaker than in the past due to the war in Gaza and Israel’s defeat of Hezbollah in 2024. Nevertheless, Iran has many capabilities. It also has friends such as Russia and China who will not want to see Iran weakened or humiliated.

Iran was expected to go into Sunday’s meeting with its head held high. It was angry about a resolution at the e International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and had threatened to leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT. It also said it would establish a new facility for its nuclear program.

This appeared to be more Iranian bluffing and claims than reality, because Iran prefers a deal and sanctions relief. Iran doesn’t want a war. Iran’s regime has always sought to avoid a direct war because it felt it could be harmed internally.

However, Iran had grown more bold after October 7, sensing an opportunity for a multi-front war on Israel. That is why it felt it could respond to an Israeli airstrike in Damascus in March 2024 by launching an attack on Israel directly. It felt it could do the same in October 2024. Iran grew overly aggressive and arrogant, even though it is the regime that usually accuses others of arrogance.

By 2025, things had changed. With Trump back in office, Iran was more cautious. It sensed an opportunity for a new dawn of relations with the US. The US was also in talks with Russia and dealing with a Gaza ceasefire. Iran felt that it might be time to get a deal, and it went into talks with the US in April and May. Five rounds of talks occurred. However, Iran was concerned that it wouldn’t get to keep its enrichment capabilities, something that it believed was important.

Iran has hoped that there might be daylight between the US and Israel. It read news reports about Trump’s talks with Netanyahu and reports that the US didn’t want Israel to strike Iran. It felt that while Israel might be playing the “bad cop,” Iran could likely get the US to do a deal.

This wasn’t a replay of 2015. Iran believed that it was in a different position now, weaker in some ways because of the loss of its proxies, but stronger in other ways due to increased Russian and Chinese ties.

This is the situation that led to the morning of June 13. Countries in the Middle East have taken a wait-and-see approach. They hoped that Trump could get a deal done.

The Gulf countries hosted Trump in May, and they likely sent a message that they want stability. They have also seen how Trump has embraced ties with Syria.

They believed that the US might be able to ratchet down tensions and call off Israel’s attack. It appears now that the calculations in the Gulf and elsewhere were wrong. The question they will be asking is if these strikes can then lead to de-escalation or if Iran will lash out and respond across the region.

Iran likely knows that it is better to tailor its response. It has positive ties with Qatar and has improved ties with Saudi Arabia. Iran’s foreign minister was also in Oslo this week, and he has been doing outreach to Egypt and other countries in the region. Iran will want to portray Israel as the country stoking the crisis, while Iran will want to claim it is a victim.

Iran will have also seen the UN vote on June 12 in which almost every country at the UN called for a ceasefire, and only a handful of countries voted with Israel. Israel has lost the support of European countries and others. The 600-day Gaza war is not popular. Trump has tried to end that war and sought an Iran deal. Iran will now feel it is at a crossroads in terms of how to respond. The region will feel it is sitting on a kind of volcano, one that it hoped would stay dormant.

Source: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-857578