Islam Is Weakening in Iran

Iran has long been labeled an Islamic Republic—both politically and demographically—with official statistics claiming over 98% of its population adheres to Islam. However, beneath that surface lies a significant shift. After more than four decades of theocratic governance, Iran may no longer be an “Islamic-majority” society in spirit, belief, or identity—despite what the numbers say.

The Disillusionment After the Revolution

When Ayatollah Khomeini returned in 1979, many believed Islamic governance would deliver justice, moral integrity, and liberation from Western domination. Instead, Iranians experienced a rigid theocracy that concentrated power in unelected clerics, suppressed civil liberties, and weaponized religion.

For decades, religious observance—like compulsory hijab, mandated prayers, and gender segregation—was enforced through coercion, surveillance, and punishment. The regime did not inspire devotion; it bred resentment.

A New Generation: Rejecting Religion as State Control

Nowhere is this sentiment more visible than among those born after the revolution. For many young Iranians, Islam is synonymous with censorship, economic decay, and repression—not spirituality. It is not a path to meaning, but a mechanism of dominance.

Debunking the “98% Muslim” Myth

Official statistics in Iran do not reflect voluntary religious affiliation. Declaring “no religion” is dangerous, as apostasy carries severe punishments, including imprisonment or even the death penalty. In practice, Islam is not chosen but inherited: a child born to Muslim parents is automatically considered Muslim and has no legal right to convert. Renouncing Islam or embracing another faith is criminalized. As a result, millions of Iranians who no longer believe in Islam are still officially classified as Muslims. Western universities and institutions often repeat the regime’s claim that 98% of Iranians are Muslim, but this figure is misleading and fails to capture the profound secularization occurring within Iranian society.

But independent research paints a different reality. A 2020 anonymous survey by the  Gamaan Institute of over 50,000 Iranians found:

• 32% identified as Shi’a Muslim
• 9% as Sunni Muslim
• Nearly 50% identified as non-religious or having lost their religion
• Over 70% opposed religious laws, including compulsory hijab

These findings signal a profound shift: a society moving from post-Islamic character—even if its government remains theocratic.

Faith Under Coercion Is Hollow Faith

True belief must be freely chosen. Faith imposed by fear is not belief—it’s compliance.

By intertwining religion with authoritarian rule, the Islamic Republic has hollowed out Islam. Mosques are often deserted; young women publicly burn their hijabs; street art mocks religious figures. Protest chants like “We don’t want an Islamic Republic!” or “Clerics, get lost!” are not those of a devout majority—but the voice of a population that has rejected religion as tyranny.

The Woman, Life, Freedom Uprising: A Cultural Paradigm Shift

The 2022–2023 “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement marked a seismic cultural rupture. Iranian women defying hijab laws and youth confronting morality police didn’t just challenge the regime—they performed a mass spiritual rebellion.

Iran is now leading secularization from within the Muslim world—not because of Western influence, but because Iranians lived under political Islam and chose to reject it.

Thus, while the regime continues to rule under the banner of Islam, society has dropped that banner.

Iran Is No Longer Islamic-Majority in Spirit

Official labels may persist, but they no longer reflect Iran’s spiritual reality. The regime sought to enforce an Islamic society—yet its very imposition has produced one of the region’s most secularizing societies.

The paradox of the Islamic Republic is this: in trying to enforce Islam, it may have created the first post-Islamic society in the Muslim world.

 

* Dr. Fariba Parsa holds a Ph.D. in social science, specializing in Iranian politics with a focus on political Islam, democracy, and human rights. She is the author of Fighting for Change in Iran: The Women, Life, Freedom Philosophy against Political Islam. Dr. Parsa is also the founder and president of Women’s E-Learning in Leadership (WELL), a nonprofit organization dedicated to empowering women in Iran and Afghanistan through online leadership education and training.

 

Source: https://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2025/09/11/islam_is_weakening_in_iran_1134383.html