Is U.S. repeating its Iraq mistake on Iran?

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To end the war between Israel and Iran, the U.S. resorted to war.

Washington entered the fray by striking three Iranian nuclear sites on Saturday. “We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. All planes are now outside of Iran air space. A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow. All planes are safely on their way home,” the White House posted on X platform on Saturday.

This marks a dangerous turning point in an already volatile Middle East.

True, U.S. military options against Iran stem from concerns over Iran’s nuclear program and its influence in the region. Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump had emphasized the need to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, framing this as essential to protecting U.S. interests and those of its allies.

However, the rhetoric of demanding “unconditional surrender” from Iran and the deployment of additional military assets to the region risk escalating a conflict that could spiral beyond control.

The Middle East is a complex mosaic of alliances, rivalries, and proxy conflicts. Iran’s response to Israeli airstrikes demonstrates the fragile balance of power and the potential for rapid escalation. A U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities or military infrastructure could provoke a severe retaliation, not only from Iran but also from its regional allies and proxies, potentially igniting a wider regional war.

“Let the Americans know that the Iranian nation is not one to surrender, and any military intervention on their part will undoubtedly result in serious, irreparable consequences,” Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned in a televised national address on Wednesday.

And don’t forget, the escalation is not just about Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

The Israeli government has been bold about its intentions. When asked by Fox News if regime change could be part of his military efforts, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu replied it “could certainly be the result because the Iran regime is very weak.”

As Iranians see it, by escalating military tensions and wooing the U.S. into the quagmire, Tel Aviv is colluding with exterior forces for its selfish geopolitical goals. Under the guise of “setting back Iran’s nuclear program,” Israel is working with the world’s super power to uproot regimes they view as rivals.

“They (Iranians) see it as Israel wanting to, once and for all, downgrade Iran’s capabilities as a state, its military institutions, and change the balance of power between Iran and Israel in a decisive way, and perhaps topple the Islamic Republic as a whole, if it can,” the BBC quoted Vali Nasr, Professor of Middle East studies and International Affairs at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and author of the 2025 book ‘Iran’s Grand Strategy,’ as saying.

In this context, Washington’s military interventions into the Iran-Israel conflict could break the fragile geopolitical balance in the already turbulent Middle East. How Iranian allies and other major players in the region, including Russia, would react to U.S. strikes still remains to be seen, with the hashtag #WorldWarIII already trending on the X platform.

Earlier, Yemen’s Houthi group vowed to target American ships if the U.S. attacks Iran. “If America is involved in the attack and aggression against Iran … the armed forces (Houthi forces) will target its ships and battleships in the Red Sea,” Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea said in the statement on Saturday, aired by Houthi-run al-Masirah TV.

History has repeatedly shown that military interventions in the Middle East often produce unintended consequences, including prolonged conflicts and regional destabilization.

In 2003, the U.S. invaded Iraq based on flawed intelligence. The result? Washington’s intervention turned out to be disastrous, dragging the region into insurgency and sectarian violence. Two decades on, post-invasion Iraq is still struggling with the lack of a cohesive governing structure, the rise of militia, and other challenges that the U.S. has failed to manage.

Now, is the Trump administration repeating the same mistake in Iran, which is three times as large as Iraq?

“Does anyone think that what was done in Iraq in 2003 was a good idea? Does anyone think that what was done in Libya the next decade was a good idea? No!” Macron warned of U.S. military strikes against Iran, citing the disastrous legacy of past U.S.-led regime change efforts in the region.

Diplomacy, therefore, must remain the priority.

Just as Chinese President Xi Jinping urged on Thursday, ceasefire must be an urgent priority in the Middle East, civilian safety must be a top priority, dialogue and negotiation are the fundamental solutions, and the international community’s peacemaking efforts are indispensable. The four-point proposal injects stabilizing force into the Middle East tensions.

There are still avenues for negotiation and diplomatic pressure that could lead to a peaceful resolution. A measured, diplomatic approach that prioritizes dialogue over military confrontation offers the best hope for stability in the Middle East and beyond. The world is now watching the United States.

 

Source: https://news.cgtn.com/news/2025-06-22/Is-U-S-repeating-its-Iraq-mistake-on-Iran–1Ep84OM1WyA/p.html