In Ukraine, the whispers of Vietnam could soon become shouts

Perhaps historical amnesia is not such a bad thing, despite George Santayana’s warning in 1905’s “The Life of Reason” that those who “cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

One reason is that, even with recollections of the past, we are often doomed to repeat its blunders and even catastrophic errors. After all, what did the U.S. learn from its Vietnam failures that it did not repeat in Afghanistan and Iraq three decades later?

That said, links between the Ukraine War and Vietnam do provide intellectual fodder in assessing how this conflict may evolve and eventually end. What is interesting is that after the 1954 division of French Indo-China into North and South Vietnam, Ukraine could be seen as a representation of either.

The North was determined to unite Vietnam. As it recovered from the war with France and began rebuilding a state under communist design, its leader, Ho Chi Minh, understood it would be a long struggle, possibly lasting decades.

Ho also realized that the basis for his unification strategy would be to exploit fault lines in the South — first between the rich, who governed to their benefit, and the poor and out-of-power who suffered; then between various religions, including Buddhism, Catholicism and the Can Dai and Hoa Hao sects.

This led to his establishment of cadres of revolutionaries in the South, some of whom had interests diverging from Hanoi’s. Over time, these groups would gradually increase control of parts of the south, and the government in Saigon was unable to reverse their gains. The rest is history.

Fearful of dominoes falling in South East Asia to the so-called Sino-Soviet communist monolith — that could not have been a more mistaken assumption — in 1961, the new Kennedy administration acted. Promising to pay any price and bear any burden, the U.S. slid into what would become the Vietnam quagmire.

But after deploying nearly half a million troops to South Vietnam, and having dropped more tonnages of bombs on the North, Cambodia and Laos than in all of World War II, the U.S. evacuated 14 years later. Then, after Congress cut off all funding, it was only a matter of time before the North came to control the South fully. The photo of the last U.S. Huey helicopter lifting off from the U.S. embassy in Saigon encapsulated the folly and stupidity of that war.

How might this apply to Ukraine? Interestingly, Ukraine could be seen as either North or South Vietnam. If viewed through the Hanoi lens, the parallel to the 1954 Geneva Conference was the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the subsequent Budapest Memorandum that had assured Ukrainian sovereignty.

But parts of Ukraine were then under Russian control. About 20,000 Russian troops and their families lived in Crimea. And in the east in Donbas and Luhansk, substantial numbers of the population were Russian speakers and favoring Russian rule.

In this case, the North was supported by China and the Soviet Union. Ukraine is aided by the U.S., European Union and NATO.

And, as of last week, President Trump has decided Ukraine can regain all of its lost territories, as North Vietnam was attempting to do in the South, provided the EU and NATO do the heavy lifting with money, resources and weapons.

As North Vietnam was attacking the South with its cadre forces using guerrilla tactics until a conventional force could be mobilized, Ukraine is hammering Russia with drone and missile attacks. Indeed, the way that Ukraine has immobilized Russia’s Black Sea Fleet with drones may be akin to guerrilla war at sea.

If Ukraine is considered in light of South Vietnam, there are significant commonalities but more differences. As the South was attacked by the North, so too was Ukraine attacked by Russia. Instead of using guerrilla forces, the war is both being waged in pitched battles. Unlike South Vietnam, Ukraine has a very competent and dedicated military and is not divided by a broken or unpopular government.

The link and possible reason for Ukraine succumbing is not necessarily the size and weight of Russia. South Vietnam was doomed only when Congress cut off aid. As Trump has put the onus of support on Europe, that too may prove fragile and lead to an unhappy outcome.

The other difference is profound.  The “loss” of the South in Vietnam had no geostrategic consequence. Failure in Ukraine will.

 

* Harlan Ullman, Ph.D., is UPI’s Arnaud deBorchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council, the chairman of two private companies and the principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. He and former United Kingdom Defense Chief David Richards are the authors of a forthcoming book on preventing strategic catastrophe.

 

Source: https://thehill.com/opinion/international/5523986-ukraine-vietnam-war-parallels/