Canada: Being a “Neighbor” to America

The new tensions between the U.S. and Canada are the result of various historically accumulated factors that have resurfaced in the present day. Despite their geographical proximity, deep economic integration, and shared common cultural similarities, the potential for economic and political tensions between the two countries has always existed. The most evident indicators of this are crises arising from tariffs and the occasional emergence of extreme rhetoric regarding the annexation of Canada.

The Past, Present, and Future of Canada-U.S. Relations

The high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on China, Mexico, and Canada came into effect as of March 4. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that his country would retaliate in equal measure. In his statement, Trudeau declared, “Trump wants to see the Canadian economy collapse because that would effectively make our country the 51st state of the U.S. But that will never happen!” He emphasized that U.S. policies pose a threat to Canada’s independence. Trudeau concluded his speech with a strong message of national unity, saying, “But we are Canadians! We will unite, we will stand up to the Americans, we will fight for our rights, and we will win,” and called on the Canadian people to show solidarity.

Relations between the United States and Canada, which have become extremely tense with these developments, have historically been fueled by different dynamics such as cultural, economic and political competition, as well as close neighborly relations. Despite the friendly and strategic partnership-like relations between the two countries, crises, particularly over customs duties, have been on the agenda many times before. For example, Richard Nixon introduced legislation to impose a 10 percent tariff after the United States abandoned the gold standard in the early 1970s.

The Historical Background of Relations

The historical interaction between Canada and the United States can be considered to have begun with the balance of power between the colonies in the late 18th and early 19th centuries. Much of present-day Canada was once a battleground between French and British colonial interests. Britain’s dominance over France in North America solidified British influence as a key element in Canada’s foundation. The United States separated from British rule with the Declaration of Independence in 1776 and the subsequent War of Independence (1775-1783). During this period, Canada became more conservative and loyal to Britain, a geography where those loyal to the British Crown took refuge.

In the early 19th century, various border and territorial disputes erupted between Canada and the United States. The War of 1812, in particular, increased military tensions between the two sides and intensified their struggle for influence. Although this war did not result in significant border changes, it reinforced mutual distrust between the two nations. When Canada was later established as a confederation in 1867, it long carried the reflex of protecting its own identity and integrity against the possible expansion policies of the United States.

By the first half of the 20th century, despite occasional political tensions, the U.S. and Canada had become crucial allies, particularly during World War I and World War II. In the post-war era, both countries joined the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1947, fostering policies to facilitate trade and reduce tariffs. The 1965 Automotive Products Agreement known also as Auto Pact accelerated the integration of production and trade between the two countries in the automotive sector.

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), implemented in 1994, significantly eliminated tariffs between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, creating a broad free trade zone across the continent. This agreement dramatically increased Canada’s exports to the U.S., deepening economic interdependence. However, after 2017, the Trump administration renegotiated NAFTA, claiming it was disadvantageous for the U.S. As a result, in 2020, NAFTA was replaced by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which imposed stricter regulations on the automotive sector and introduced more detailed provisions on intellectual property rights.

During this process, Canada sought to defend its interests through both diplomatic and trade countermeasures. Disputes over products such as softwood lumber and dairy have frequently resurfaced, with tariffs and quotas fueling competitive tensions between the two countries.

The Roots of the Current Tension

The U.S.’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian imports is largely tied to its return to protectionist economic policies. With Trump’s re-election, the “America First” doctrine has once again taken center stage. This approach is based on the belief that imports—especially in key industries—harm the domestic U.S. market. Historically, Canada has been the U.S.’s primary trading partner, with Canadian exports to the U.S. forming the backbone of its economy. A high tariff of 25% could severely impact Canadian industries, particularly agriculture, automotive manufacturing, and lumber. In response, the Canadian Prime Minister has announced plans to impose equivalent tariffs on U.S. goods, a move that would make trade more costly for both countries and significantly disrupt economic flows.

On the other hand, as announced by the Canadian Prime Minister, the Trump administration’s plan to “make Canada a state of the United States” remains rhetorical, but it reflects a historical concern. In the 19th century, the U.S. pursued a series of expansionist moves toward the west and north. While the forced annexation of Canada never materialized, the sheer political and economic power of the U.S. has led Canadians to develop a persistent reflex to safeguard their national sovereignty and identity. This sensitivity is further reinforced by the pervasive influence of American culture through cinema, television, and digital media. Trump’s aggressive rhetoric may therefore feed a historical undercurrent of fear in Canada. Additionally, Canada’s cultural and linguistic diversity—particularly the French-speaking population in Quebec—along with its more social-democratic political system, distinguish it from the U.S.’s liberal-capitalist, two-party political tradition. This distinction has strengthened the Canadian public’s determination to preserve their national identity.

Cultural and Economic Areas of Competition

Cultural competition has always been a major point of discussion between the U.S. and Canada. As one of the world’s largest producers of entertainment and media, the U.S. exerts constant pressure on Canadian broadcasters and artists. In an effort to preserve its national culture, the Canadian government implements economic support programs and quota regulations to protect its domestic broadcasting, music, and film industries. However, the ease with which major U.S. media corporations enter the Canadian market through digital platforms puts Canadian content creators at a competitive disadvantage.

On the other hand, Canada is rich in natural resources, particularly oil and natural gas. The oil sands in Alberta region and the country’s vast forests strengthen Canada’s strategic access to resources and its export power. For many years, the U.S. has been Canada’s largest energy customer, increasing its imports of Canadian oil, natural gas, and lumber to ensure its own energy security. However, the Trump administration’s energy independence policies and efforts to boost domestic oil production have put Canada at a disadvantage in terms of energy exports.

The Reflections of Historical Competition in the Present

Canada’s emphasis on national identity against the United States grew stronger in the second half of the 20th century. In areas such as healthcare, gun control policies, and multiculturalism, Canada has developed a distinct political and social model that sets it apart from the U.S. These differences sustain a fear among Canadians of becoming too similar to their southern neighbor.

At the same time, the U.S. and Canada maintain an alliance within NATO, cooperating on security and defense matters. The implementation of steep tariffs against each other or references to political rivalry are unusual developments for both nations. As a result, this latest tension is likely to cause surprise and concern among the public and business communities alike. Small and medium-sized Canadian enterprises, in particular, will face serious risks due to their dependence on the U.S. as their closest foreign market.

Forward-Looking Projections

Despite the Trump administration’s hardline stance, trade dependency between the U.S. and Canada remains extremely high. In the long run, both sides persisting with restrictive tariff policies will harm their economies, especially industries that were unprepared for such measures. As the negative economic impacts become more apparent, the Trump administration may be forced to reconsider and enter new negotiations to lower tariffs. While alternative markets exist for both Canada and the U.S., their geographical proximity and historical ties make trade relations between them indispensable. If criticism of Trump’s aggressive trade policies grows—particularly from large corporations and the agricultural sector—his administration may be compelled to back down. On the Canadian side, the Prime Minister’s strong rhetoric serves as a political message reinforcing national sovereignty and identity, potentially boosting domestic support in the short term. However, economic realities suggest that such tensions are unsustainable in the long run.

Meanwhile, Canada has been working to strengthen its trade relations with the Asia-Pacific region in recent years. As a key member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Canada aims to expand its market access in Asia. If trade tensions with the U.S. persist, Canada is likely to deepen its commercial ties with major economies such as China, Japan, South Korea, and Mexico. However, whether this shift can fully compensate for the economic losses caused by U.S. tariffs remains highly uncertain.

Conclusion

The new tensions between the U.S. and Canada are the result of long-standing historical factors resurfacing in the present day. Despite their geographical proximity, deep economic integration, and shared cultural elements, the potential for economic and political tensions between the two countries has always existed. The most apparent indicators of this tension are the recurring crises over tariffs and the occasional resurfacing of extreme rhetoric regarding the annexation of Canada.

Historically, Canada has been highly sensitive about issues of national identity and sovereignty, while the U.S. has often adopted protectionist policies to safeguard its economic interests. With Trump’s re-election, the “America First” policy has once again led to a more confrontational period in U.S.-Canada trade relations. In response, Canada is pursuing countermeasures, including retaliatory tariffs and efforts to diversify its trade partnerships.

In future scenarios, renewed intensification of diplomatic negotiations and efforts to reduce customs duties in the long term will be prominent. The economic interdependence between the two countries is so high that permanent raising of customs barriers seems contrary to the interests of both sides. While political tensions may persist for some time, the strength of societal and economic ties between the two countries will likely push them back to the negotiating table in the long run.

Ensar Kıvrak

Ensar Kıvrak was born in Ankara in 1992. He graduated from Kocaeli University’s Department of Political Science and Public Administration in 2015 and completed his master’s degree in Political Science at Sakarya University in 2018. He received his PhD degree from the same university in 2024 with his thesis titled “Sociopolitical Possibilities of Patriotism De-Nationalized: A Theoretical Discussion”. He currently works as a research assistant in the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at Sakarya University. He is married and has three daughters.