A New Alliance Must Be Formed

Developments in the Middle East are making it imperative to change traditional geopolitical stances. Every state must now understand this. If we do not put aside hostilities, rivalries, and historical prejudices, I fear we may enter a period in which no country will be able to find peace.

Two developments have led me to think this way:

Israel’s recognition of the separatist administration in Somalia as a state, and Saudi Arabia’s strike on a ship and port in Yemen carrying military equipment belonging to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Both are serious incidents that require careful and urgent consideration.

ATTENTION TO THE MEDITERRANEAN AND AFRICA

In the Middle East, Africa, and the Mediterranean waters, my main concern is Israel and the countries acting in concert with it.

In Sudan, Yemen, and Somalia, Israel’s actions—either directly or through the UAE—are critical enough to disrupt peace and provoke conflict. This is why Saudi Arabia has now put a stop to this by using military force to ensure the UAE’s withdrawal from Yemen.

The recognition of Somaliland poses a threat not only to Mogadishu, but also to Riyadh, Cairo, Sana’a, Nairobi, and Ankara.

Do not underestimate Israel’s military cooperation agreements with Greece and Southern Cyprus to establish dominance in the Mediterranean. Over the past six years, they have conducted more than 35 joint exercises and training operations, and billions of dollars’ worth of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles have been sold.

A Mediterranean basin centered around Israel is something that not only Türkiye, but also Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Syria—in short, every state bordering the Mediterranean waters—needs to consider seriously. Exclusive maritime zone agreements between Greece, Israel, and Southern Cyprus would severely restrict the maneuvering space of the countries in the region and could even render them unable to fish.

WHY ARE NEW ALLIANCES NEEDED?

Let’s speak plainly: because of the rivalry among the region’s major countries, foreign powers are becoming active in our region and on our soil. And Israel, which has attacked seven countries so far, is able to act so freely precisely because of these conflicts and divisions.

To be even more blunt, major powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Türkiye, and Iran have suffered significant losses of power because they have been preoccupied with one another until now, creating a vacuum. And it is Israel—backed by the United States and the United Kingdom—that is filling this vacuum.

Yes, these states cannot solve every problem, but at the very least, can’t they postpone the issues they cannot agree on?

If they were to reach an agreement, it would be much more possible for each country to protect its interests. If there were a Türkiye-Egypt alliance in Sudan, a Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Egypt alliance in Somalia, and if Türkiye, with its historical ties, became active in Yemen, would it be better or worse?

If Qatar, with its high diplomatic capability and organizational skills, became active in these regions, would we suffer from it or benefit?

Of course, we would benefit.

A SAUDI ARABIA–TÜRKIYE–EGYPT ALLIANCE HAS BECOME NECESSARY

The relations among the three major and influential states in the region are not as bad as they used to be, but they are still not as good as they should be. So, who benefits from this distance between them? As seen in Somaliland, Sudan, and Yemen, each of these countries is suffering geopolitical losses because of the actions of Israel and the UAE. If the interests of these three countries are being harmed, then why aren’t they strengthening their relations and alliances?

There are, admittedly, some disagreements—most notably regarding the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. And to speak frankly once again, there is a psychological fear that perceives Türkiye’s influence in the region as “neo-Ottoman expansionism.” Netanyahu fueled this fear during a joint press conference with Greece and Southern Cyprus. His aim was to drive a wedge between Türkiye and the countries of the region.

Anyone with common sense knows that, geographically and geopolitically, it is simply not possible for Türkiye to return to its imperial days.

In Syria, cooperation was established with Saudi Arabia and Egypt in supporting the Ahmed Sherif administration—was the outcome of this cooperation bad? On the issues of Somalia and Sudan, Egypt and Türkiye are on the same side. In Libya, Türkiye has shifted its position and aligned itself with Egypt.

If all of this can be done, then why not in other areas as well? The Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas are not unsolvable issues—as long as the countries are willing to reach an agreement.

Such an alliance would directly affect other countries with which the three states work closely, and it would unleash tremendous energy. In this way, every country would benefit, and their peoples would gain the opportunity to live in greater prosperity.

I am also certain that if these three countries form an alliance, Iran will abandon the misguided policies it has pursued until now and will seek to work in harmony with this alliance.

THE COMING YEARS WILL BE A PERIOD OF INCREASING CHAOS

It must be remembered that Israel never desires peace in the region; this is why it never forms a genuine alliance with any Muslim country. Countries with which it has no issues today will inevitably face problems with it tomorrow. The only solution is for Muslim states to unite on minimal common ground and adapt to the new geopolitical reality.

We must do this because, unfortunately, the coming years will not be years of peace and tranquility. Europe will lose even more power and drop out of the equation. In such a case, the Mediterranean alliance will be reorganized.

The competition between China and the United States carries the danger of turning into a vortex that will pull in Russia and India. The storm and earthquake this would create could be very severe.

Chaotic geopolitical changes will seriously affect the economy and trade. In such a situation, it is inevitable that weaker countries will experience serious dislocation due to their externally dependent structures. For this reason, the strong countries of the region must undertake strengthening efforts to brace for the earthquakes that will occur within their own geography.